After experiencing the "century crash" on October 11, everyone must have a deeper understanding of the risks of contract trading. This sharp decline came suddenly, and even many investors who thought they were relatively safe with low-leverage positions were not spared, leading to widespread liquidations. This makes me ponder: where is the way out for ordinary people in the crypto world?
Figure 1: The moment of BTC flash crash (Data source: AiCoin News)
Recently, I came across a post titled "Life Cheat Codes" that has been trending on Twitter, which I believe answers this question well. The gist of the response is: first, study digital currencies, accumulate funds by brushing up on Alpha and grabbing airdrops, then open a SafePal card to use the money earned from airdrops for daily expenses, and finally choose a dollar-cost averaging indicator AHR999 to invest in BTC, while using the remaining funds to invest in suitable targets. Today, we will introduce dollar-cost averaging and how to use the AHR999 indicator to help you gradually become wealthy and no longer be troubled by liquidations!
Figure 2: Source of Life Cheat Codes (Source: Zhihu @Diarriker)
### 1. How to Find the Right Buying Opportunity?
The pioneer of coin hoarding and the author of the AHR999 indicator, Jiu Shen, expressed the following views in his article "Hoarding Bitcoin: Finding the Right Buying Opportunity": First, the statement "you can buy Bitcoin at any time" is both correct and incorrect. From a long-term perspective, it is correct—buying at the peak of the last bull market and holding until now would still yield several times the return; however, from the perspective of a hoarder with limited funds, it is incorrect—if one can control the average cost at a lower level through dollar-cost averaging, they can hold several times more coins than if they bought at the peak, and even achieve financial freedom a cycle (4 years) earlier, which is crucial.
Regarding how to judge the buying opportunity, Li Xiaolai proposed in "A Brief Survival Guide to the Bitcoin World" that "in the long run, miner costs can be regarded as fundamentals." Historically, Bitcoin prices have never fallen below the electricity cost of mainstream mining machines at the time; otherwise, large-scale mining machines would shut down, leading to a decrease in hash rate and subsequently a reduction in mining difficulty. Therefore, the statement that "electricity costs are a hard support for Bitcoin prices" holds true historically. As mining difficulty has been rising, BTC prices have also increased, meaning that the low points of each bear market should be higher than those of the previous bear market.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty (Data source: AiCoin Index)
However, this phenomenon is not reasonable from an economic perspective, as prices are usually determined by demand and are unrelated to costs. In light of the contradiction between theory and fact, Jiu Shen provided his explanation: Bitcoin is very special; anyone preparing to hold it will consider its production cost—because there are two ways to obtain Bitcoin: "buying coins" and "mining." If one can obtain it through mining at a cost of $5,000, they would not buy it for $6,000.
Bitcoin is fundamentally different from products like iPhones and wine, where people focus more on quality; with Bitcoin, people focus more on cost. Although everyone's mining costs are different (for example, some have mining costs as high as $10,000, making direct purchase more cost-effective for them), there are always large funds with access to mining machines or electricity resources that can achieve low costs. Once Bitcoin prices approach the minimum cost line, funds originally intended for mining will shift to purchasing Bitcoin, which explains why coin prices have never fallen below the electricity cost of mainstream mining machines.
Based on this, we can conclude that "the lower limit of Bitcoin prices is the electricity cost of current mainstream mining machines." But what if the price retraces without hitting the cost line and then rises again? Wouldn't that mean missing out? Therefore, people must first buy a portion of Bitcoin at relatively low prices, then retain some funds or earn more funds, waiting for that rare and excellent opportunity—this is the right buying opportunity for dollar-cost averaging.
### 2. Current BTC Cost in 2025
According to Jiu Shen's view that "the lower limit of Bitcoin prices is the electricity cost of current mainstream mining machines," let's break down the approximate cost of 1 BTC now: By calculating the cost of mining 1 BTC globally and the proportion of mining in various regions, we can determine the global average cost of BTC. China accounts for about 20% of global hash rate, Kazakhstan about 15%, Russia about 5%, the United States about 40%, Canada about 5%, and other regions about 15%. Multiplying the hash rate proportion of each region by its electricity cost gives a global average BTC cost of about $70,000. Below this price, most mining machines worldwide would shut down and stop production, opting instead to purchase BTC.
Figure 4: Electricity Cost of 1 BTC (Source: Twitter @BitcoinPresident)
Figure 5: Bitcoin Mining Map (Data source: chainbulletin)
Therefore, we can make significant purchases near the $70,000 price for BTC, which is why the lowest point in April was around $70,000. However, such opportunities are rare, and we need a more universal indicator to guide our dollar-cost averaging in BTC—the AHR999 indicator.
Figure 6: Lowest Point of Bitcoin in April (Data source: AiCoin)
### 3. The Principle and Usage of the AHR999 Indicator
We need an indicator that can quantify the market's temperature, allowing ordinary investors to have a sense of direction when facing volatility; this is the significance of the AHR999 indicator. It was proposed by Jiu Shen, a representative figure in the coin hoarding community, to measure the relative long-term valuation of Bitcoin, which can be understood as an "emotional thermometer" or "value anchor."
On the AiCoin platform, ordinary investors can intuitively view the real-time dynamics and historical trends of the AHR999 index. If you want to integrate this index into your strategy, AiCoin also provides a convenient API data interface: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/opendata for you to call.
Viewing Path: Open AiCoin - Search for AHR999 Index
AHR999 Index = (Bitcoin Price / 200-Day Dollar-Cost Average) * (Bitcoin Price / Index Growth Valuation)
The AHR999 actually combines two key variables: one is the ratio of Bitcoin's current price to the 200-day dollar-cost average, reflecting the market's short-term temperature; the other is the degree of deviation between Bitcoin's current price and the long-term growth curve, representing how far the market is from long-term reasonable value.
Multiplying these two together gives us the AHR999. Jiu Shen's logic is that prices always fluctuate around the long-term growth trend; when prices are far below the trend line, it is an opportunity for long-term positioning, increasing dollar-cost averaging; when prices deviate too far from the trend line, it often indicates that market sentiment is overheated, with risks outweighing rewards, leading to a halt in dollar-cost averaging or even selling.
1. How to Understand AHR999?
Based on historical data, AHR999 roughly has the following reference ranges:
Figure 7: AHR999 Indicator Ranges
In past cycles, AHR999 < 0.45 has almost always corresponded to excellent long-term buying opportunities (such as the lows at the end of 2015, late 2018, and the end of 2022); while when AHR999 exceeds 2.0, it often accompanies exuberant market sentiment, peaking in the later stages of a bull market.
Figure 8: AHR999 Indicator Bottoming Range (Data source: AiCoin)
2. AHR999 Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy Example
If you are an ordinary investor without time to monitor the market daily, you can refer to the following approach:
When AHR999 < 0.45: Double your purchase, for example, if you usually dollar-cost average $100, you can buy $300 at this time;
When AHR999 is between 0.45–1.2: Maintain your original dollar-cost averaging rhythm;
When AHR999 > 1.2: Pause or halve your dollar-cost averaging, gradually accumulating cash;
When AHR999 > 2.0: Take profits or exit in batches at high points.
The benefit of this approach is that you won't heavily invest at high points, nor will you hesitate at low points and miss out. By executing on a fixed cycle (for example, daily or weekly), you hand over "timing anxiety" to data rather than emotions.
3. Why is AHR999 Particularly Suitable for Ordinary People?
In this information-overloaded market, the vast majority of people are not skilled at day trading and do not have the systems for high-frequency trading. What we truly need is a tool that can "help you avoid mistakes" over long periods.
The significance of AHR999 lies in its ability to convert complex market emotions into an intuitive number using extremely simple quantitative logic. When everyone is fearful, it tells you to "buy"; when everyone is greedy, it reminds you "it's time to stop." Historical backtesting shows that if you continuously dollar-cost average or even bottom out when AHR999 < 1.2, and gradually take profits when it exceeds 2.0, the long-term returns are significantly higher than simply holding coins or randomly chasing highs and lows. For ordinary people, this is more realistic than frequent trading and allows you to survive longer.
Conclusion
This "century crash" reminds us once again:
In a high-leverage, high-volatility market, no one can always hit the right rhythm. The root cause of liquidation is not poor skills, but unstable methods and excessive emotions.
The value of the AHR999 indicator lies not only in helping us find "buy points," but also in allowing ordinary people to find a sense of order amid the tremendous noise. It helps you understand: the accumulation of wealth is not about getting rich quickly in the short term, but about long-term execution.
The market will experience countless crashes and countless rebounds. But as long as you can dollar-cost average according to plan in times of fear and maintain restraint in times of greed, you have already outperformed 90% of people.
The story of Bitcoin repeats itself in cycles, but each cycle rewards those who are disciplined and know how to wait. In the crypto world, the real "life cheat code" is not insider information, but using cognition and systems to overcome human nature.
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