Organized by: ChainCatcher

Despite the recent geopolitical turmoil, Ethereum has become the focus of market attention, driven by ETF net inflows and active capital flows, against the backdrop of an overall market correction. Whether this is dominated by leveraged funds, driven by institutional movements, or even a transformation in top-level narratives has become the core topic of this discussion. As a barometer in crypto assets, Ethereum's price fluctuations are no longer solely determined by retail sentiment but are gradually showing a driving pattern of "top-level narrative + market synergy," sparking heated discussions and reflections among many E Guardians (i.e., loyal supporters of Ethereum) and ecosystem participants. Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation has initiated financial policy reforms and internal restructuring, signaling strategic adjustments. How this move will affect Ethereum's medium to long-term trends has become a central topic of discussion in the crypto space, indicating that Ethereum is at a critical juncture of "transformation," with the potential for future breakthroughs to new highs drawing significant attention.

In this Space titled "Transformation: Can Ethereum, with a Reversal in Fundamentals, Break Through New Highs?" we invite eight guests: Kiwi, Head of Research at OKX Ventures; Christine, Co-founder of Infini; Yinghao LIN, a well-known E Guardian; pepper, Huajiao; LEE CHAN, Co-founder of ChinaChic NFT; Aaron, Researcher at Bitget; Henry, Market Head at Hash Epoch; and Cynic, Investment Analyst at CGV, to engage in an in-depth discussion on the synergistic driving forces behind Ethereum's rise, the market fluctuations triggered by SharpLink's submission of PIPE documents, and the dominant capital forces and potential explosive tracks within the Ethereum ecosystem. We aim to clarify the real motivations behind the changes in on-chain trends and explore early opportunities and value gaps worth paying attention to in the new cycle.

For the full version, click to listen to the replay: https://x.com/i/spaces/1OdKrDRqElwJX

Question 1: What are the main reasons for Ethereum's recent rise? Is there a possibility of a rebound after the decline?

Kiwi: I think there are several factors behind Ethereum's recent rise. First, there is indeed a reason related to ETF front-running, as many investors have positioned themselves in staking-related ETFs ahead of time, which was a driving force behind the previous upward wave. Most of these purchases come from Western markets, and the rise lacks particularly clear support, leading to a pullback after the positive sentiment was consumed.

Secondly, from the perspective of chip structure, the large-scale selling of Ethereum by early crypto investment institutions has decreased, indicating an optimization of the chip structure. Although some early buyers at the previous bottom are cashing out, the overall holding situation is still improving.

As for the fundamentals, some people are paying attention to the recent actions of the Ethereum Foundation, but I personally believe that these impacts may only become apparent in one or two years and do not have short-term guiding significance. Regarding futures indicators, many times they are results rather than causes; for example, these indicators were not necessarily effective during the previous Bitcoin upward wave. Therefore, I do not recommend overly relying on this data.

Yinghao: The most intuitive feeling I have about this round of Ethereum's rise is a sense of "synergy." For a large asset like Ethereum to break through new highs, it must rely on the convergence of consensus from multiple aspects, rather than just a single-dimensional push.

In the past few cycles, Ethereum has established a solid foundation in technical narratives, such as positioning as a decentralized world computer. At the same time, the application layer has gradually enriched, carrying a large consensus from users and retail investors. However, at that time, there was still a lack of a key factor: recognition of top-level will.

Now, the change in regulatory attitude towards Ethereum, especially the signals from U.S. regulatory agencies, marks a redefinition of its asset attributes. This recognition not only enhances market confidence but also creates space for the reconstruction of price and valuation.

History often progresses in a spiral and wave-like manner. We see that from developers and users to the policy level, a true "synergy" is gradually forming. This does not mean that Ethereum can replicate Bitcoin's path, but at least this is the first time we truly feel the driving force brought by the convergence of multiple powers.

pepper: The fundamentals of Ethereum have not actually worsened. The staking volume continues to grow, and the inflation rate remains at 2%-3%, which is overall healthy.

However, from a market perspective, the ETH/BTC leverage on Bitfinex is close to the liquidation line, and the technical weekly pattern is weak, putting short-term pressure on it. Additionally, against the backdrop of geopolitical risks, the decline may exceed that of Bitcoin.

Structurally, Ethereum was initially a "mining machine" but has now evolved into a "splitting disk." However, the ecosystem lacks an effective recycling mechanism, and many Layer 2 solutions cannot form a positive cycle, leading to a dispersed main disk, and the ecosystem's vitality needs to be reactivated. Some sub-disks are restoring the ecosystem through new applications, but the overall structure remains relatively dispersed.

As for the technical narrative, Ethereum has been discussing chain narratives for many years, but what truly brings user experience are products that can be directly implemented. If the technical concepts cannot be transformed into intuitive experiences, it will be difficult to continuously attract retail investors.

So, Ethereum is still in the process of rebuilding itself, and a true breakthrough may still require time to refine its structure and repair its narrative.

LEE CHAN: I believe that Ethereum's rebound from $1400 has a clear lag in indicators, and the DeFi compliance and stablecoin narratives that emerged after the rise are essentially chasing the trend. Currently, the volatility in the secondary market far exceeds that of Bitcoin, and retail investors using leverage are prone to losses due to severe pullbacks, making short-term operations difficult.

At present, there are not many new highlights in Ethereum's ecosystem; the active projects are still the old ones, and it is not as vibrant as Solana, which has new projects emerging daily. I believe the main driving force in this round still comes from institutions, including signals that the foundation is no longer selling and large funds entering the market. In the long run, I believe that during this cycle with Trump, Ethereum has the opportunity to reach new highs. If there is a subsequent altcoin rally, it is more likely that Ethereum will lead rather than Solana, as Solana's market cannot drive market sentiment; only Ethereum can lead the overall recovery.

Henry: The recent rise of Ethereum is significantly driven by leveraged funds. The increase in open interest in futures reflects optimistic market sentiment, but essentially it is a forward reflection of price expectations rather than realization. The sustainability of this trend depends on two points: first, whether the spot market can absorb the leveraged selling pressure, and second, whether the fundamentals can support the realization of expectations. If there is a lack of such driving forces, the market may fall into deep corrections or high volatility, making it difficult for retail investors to enter due to high operational difficulty, thereby weakening the market's faith in Ethereum returning to its peak. As Hash Epoch, a platform built on the Ethereum chain, we focus more on the divergence between on-chain activity and user expected behavior—leveraged sentiment often amplifies users' enthusiasm for event predictions.

Aaron: I believe that when the market rebounds, funds will always choose to break through in the direction of least resistance—when Ethereum falls to historical lows, selling becomes very unattractive, and once buying pressure surges, it will create strong rebound momentum. Regarding the increase in open interest, many media or institutions that previously tracked this data did not include some smaller exchanges, so the rise in open interest actually represents some data corrections.

In addition, there are multiple driving factors behind Ethereum's rise: the Consensus conference significantly boosted market sentiment, and some funds with information advantages have already positioned themselves through high-leverage options strategies. The demand for hedging triggered by these options positions directly pushed up the open interest. These factors collectively contributed to Ethereum's recent price movement.

Cynic: I believe the core factor behind this round of Ethereum's rise is "self-rescue by experts"—early investors who held Ethereum at low prices have a deep faith in it, but there may be some issues during Ethereum's transition to POS and the advancement of ZK and Layer 2 upgrades. From market behavior, on one hand, the foundation's layoffs and accelerated project implementation release positive signals, while on the other hand, experts may leverage strategies like micro-strategies to raise Ethereum's price, forming a "self-rescue" style of increase.

From trading data, the current open interest (OI) has not reached an emotional peak, but rather is a positive signal—despite high funding rates, there are still a large number of long positions, indicating that real market investment is increasing, and contract trading is mobilizing retail investor faith. The short-term drop from $2800 is a black swan event impact, but Ethereum's upward cycle has been opened, and such pullbacks are actually opportunities for those who missed the boat.

Question 2: How do you view the sharp drop in stock prices after SharpLink submitted PIPE-related documents? What implications does this event have for the future development of the market?

pepper: I believe the market's reaction to the PIPE registration documents may have over-interpreted the selling risk—when Joseph Lupin (CEO of ConsenSys) took over as chairman of SharpLink Gaming's board, the company immediately disclosed related documents, and the timing of this coincidence indeed makes it easy to trigger selling expectations.

Henry: Regarding SharpLink's stock price drop, it may seem like a small company event on the surface, but I sense a deeper emotional shift: traditional financial markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to on-chain data, especially changes in contracts and futures positions on Ethereum.

This indicates a trend—on-chain information will become an important variable for off-chain assets, and the dynamic public disclosure of policies, finances, or positions will be viewed by the market as significant risk signals. This is a key turning point for our Web3 platform.

LEE CHAN: Regarding the pre-market drop of this stock, I personally feel that SharpLink is more like a counter-trend, reverse hunting strategy, essentially for cashing out. Its substantive impact on Ethereum is not that significant, far less than the kind of substantial buying power that micro-strategies can generate.

After all, "first is first," and micro-strategies, as pioneers, have already established market confidence, while these later companies are more imitators with limited influence.

Question 3: In the Ethereum ecosystem, what is the next explosive track? What early projects are worth paying attention to?

Kiwi: I personally feel that since last year's Devcon, Ethereum's innovation has actually stagnated. After Restaking, there have been no particularly outstanding new breakthroughs. Although many concepts that can be optimized have been proposed recently, there is progress in direction, but these have been mentioned long ago, and we still do not see anything that can be implemented and bring about change.

As for market hotspots, Arbitrum's recent Timeboost revenue performance is good, which is one of the few highlights. However, overall, these are still not enough to support a major market trend.

So in the short term, I believe Ethereum's technical aspect remains relatively flat, and a true breakthrough will depend on new trends, such as RWA (real-world assets), which will indeed be of significant help to Ethereum.

Henry: In my view, there are three potential explosive tracks in the Ethereum ecosystem: first, protocols with on-chain autonomous yield capabilities; second, decision-making infrastructure; and third, the service layer combining AI and smart contracts that I am currently researching. These three directions share two common points: first, they are built on Ethereum's "second curve," and second, they have verifiable on-chain income, which is particularly friendly in the current high-interest-rate environment and has monetization capabilities.

For example, our platform Hash Epoch is connecting the Web3 community with content creators, allowing influential creators and KOLs to initiate topic predictions and share profits with users, truly realizing "opinions as value, content as assets."

Question 4: In the Ethereum ecosystem, are people more interested in the price fluctuations of the coin or in the future construction of the Ethereum ecosystem?

Aaron: Combining with the previous question, there are three key macro trends in the current crypto market worth paying attention to: first, the GENIUS Act is set to be voted on in the House on the 18th, which will clear obstacles for stablecoin compliance and attract institutional funds; second, the Treasury Secretary predicts that the market value of stablecoins will increase from the current $240 billion to $2 trillion by 2028, with RWA on-chain being the core engine for achieving this growth. The on-chain mapping of traditional assets like stocks, oil, and gold will bring a massive influx of funds to the crypto market; third, despite Solana's popularity due to the MEME ecosystem, Ethereum, with its infrastructure advantages, is more likely to become the preferred platform for traditional institutions to lay out RWA. For example, Uniswap's UniChain is expected to become the largest on-chain broker, and AAVE may evolve into a central bank in the Web3 space, establishing the foundational interest rate system for the industry.

In the long run, these layouts will continue to solidify Ethereum's fundamentals, especially in the forward-looking exploration of the RWA track, which may become an important growth pole driving its development over the next four years.

pepper: I believe the key to restarting Ethereum at this stage lies in the RWA trend, which essentially addresses the issue of capital retention through the logic of "palmistry"—"capping" through mechanisms like Staking and LST to achieve forced locking, "tail removal" relying on delayed satisfaction and penalty mechanisms to constrain liquidity, and "intermediate flow" depending on capital retention designs like compound rewards.

The past DeFi nesting doll model has failed, leading to a loss of support for the underlying logic of the Ethereum ecosystem; the splitting disk has also fallen into a dilemma due to a lack of sustainable blood generation mechanisms. The rise of RWA provides another path—it maps traditional assets like U.S. stocks and real estate onto the chain, leveraging Ethereum's decentralized characteristics to become a channel for cross-border capital flow. Especially for the wealthy in underdeveloped countries, this method equates to bypassing the traditional financial system, converting assets into dollars, thus allowing the crypto industry to return to the early anonymous payment and hedging logic of Bitcoin on the "Silk Road."

Cynic: I believe the core of the SharpLink incident lies in the fact that people are not buying into its narrative. When the market is good, even if there are cash-out operations, the market's reaction will be more tolerant; but now, with the overall weakness and the altcoin sector feeling insecure, any slight disturbance can easily trigger panic selling. This is also the current dilemma of altcoins. In contrast, Bitcoin has "uniqueness," and people are willing to treat it as a safe-haven asset. But what about Ethereum? I think the gap in market confidence between it and other altcoins is not as significant as imagined.

Of course, Ethereum's biggest advantage remains DeFi and TVL, with no real competitors among public chains. But the problem is—if traditional finance really wants to engage in RWA or on-chain finance, it may not directly connect to Ethereum and might choose to launch its own chain, which may not be beneficial for Ethereum in the long term.

However, at the current stage, Ethereum is still the biggest beneficiary of the stablecoin and RWA narrative. If we look at the altcoin direction, it remains the most noteworthy mainline target.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。