Giving up is a kind of wisdom, a kind of boldness, and also a deeper form of initiative. Life has no dead ends; it depends on how you seek a way out. The way of thinking is the way out. Facing difficulties head-on and not retreating in the face of challenges ensures that you will not find yourself without a path. Success is not only a result but also a process of not fearing failure and never yielding in the face of adversity.
The market in the past couple of days has been quite favorable. According to the expected trends provided in the analysis, after the market broke through the previous consolidation area of 107,000, we have captured the subsequent small trend movements quite well. First, we went long, anticipating a rise above 110,000, and then shorted above 110,000, successfully capturing the profits from the market's pullback. The operations have been good, and we should continue to strive for more. After the CPI data was released yesterday, I felt more at ease when I saw the data, which was higher than the previous value but lower than expected. As a result, the market initially rebounded above 110,000 and then continued to decline, with the low reaching around 107,300, just hitting our take-profit level for the short position, and we completed buying in the 107,000-107,500 range. Now, we will see if this position can rebound, allowing our long position to profit again.
Returning to today's market, there are some remarks regarding liquidity. Yesterday, the short liquidity above increased once again, causing the accumulated liquidity above to reach its highest level in recent months. Strangely, the market briefly surged above 110,000, coming close to liquidating the short liquidity, but ultimately the market pulled back. It is also important to note that with so much short liquidity present, the funding rate is positive, and the spot premium index has started to rise, indicating that the spot market has begun to buy in this process. Given this situation, we initially thought that the accumulated short liquidity above was significant, and the market would likely complete a liquidation process in the short term, followed by a potential pullback. However, the actual situation has not unfolded this way, so in the short term, we are more inclined to observe a range-bound movement. If a key level is broken later, we will consider trend trading.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, with the occurrence of a pullback, the structure is not much different from yesterday. The pullback has just tested the MA7 daily line, and from the daily perspective, as long as the support holds, there will still be upward momentum in the short term. Regarding technical indicators, MACD is about to enter the bullish zone, while other indicators were running at high levels yesterday and have undergone some minor corrections after the pullback. Overall, the daily level still leans slightly bullish.
On the four-hour chart, as we analyzed yesterday, the expected pullback has occurred. Currently, the K-line is in a continuous downtrend, showing a bearish arrangement, and we have not yet seen any significant signs of a bottoming out. Based on the current moving average system structure and trend, we can accept a pullback to the MA120 daily line, which corresponds to the previous rebound high of 106,800. This pullback confirmation level was specifically mentioned in yesterday's analysis, and we need to continue monitoring this level today. Since we have already completed our buying position, MACD is currently in a bearish cycle, and RSI is starting to turn from a low position, so we need to pay special attention to the effectiveness of the support below.
In terms of operations, in the short term, we are more inclined towards a range-bound movement. We have already completed our buying in the current pullback low of 107,000-107,500. If the market moves as expected in a range-bound manner, we can seek opportunities to short at higher levels when a rebound occurs, perhaps returning to around 110,000, which would be very reasonable for us to arrange operations.
As expected, Ethereum has indeed seemed stronger recently. Could it be that, as we speculated, it will start a "doomsday chariot" trend? A friend privately messaged me yesterday asking what a doomsday chariot is. Simply put, it refers to the so-called terminal trend, where after Bitcoin reaches a new high, it stops gaining momentum, while Ethereum starts to gain strength, initiating an independent rally, followed by the end of the rebound and a significant market pullback, with Ethereum acting as a cover for Bitcoin. The market before the major pullback is the "doomsday chariot." It is still a bit early to say this expectation; we will discuss it after Bitcoin reaches a new high and Ethereum surpasses 3,000. Yesterday, the suggestion for Ethereum was to short above 2,800, but the pullback did not yield much profit. In the short term, shorting Ethereum does not seem to have a favorable risk-reward ratio, so finding an opportunity to buy is the right approach. If the price reaches around 2,700, it can be considered.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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