Fundamental Analysis
ETF Approval Faces Setbacks Again: The U.S. SEC has delayed its decision on the approval of three ETFs: Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche.
New Developments on Coinbase Listings: The exchange Coinbase has included the Sonic (S) token in its listing plan.
Significant Shift in Regulatory Framework: The SEC has officially withdrawn the extended version of the "Custody Rule" proposal and other Gensler-era regulations such as "Rule 3b-16," marking a shift in regulatory strategy from "high-pressure enforcement" to "governance-oriented regulation." This adjustment is expected to significantly lower the barriers for institutional capital entry and compliance for DeFi projects in the medium term, injecting liquidity and confidence into the market, reflecting a transition to more pragmatic and industry-friendly policies by regulators.
Technical Analysis
BTC: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its June meeting, with expectations for a rate cut pushed back to the end of Q3 to Q4, creating a phase of liquidity tightening pressure on the crypto market. Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market panic, with safe-haven funds flowing into gold and oil, causing Bitcoin to still be viewed as a high-risk asset under pressure in the short term. However, if the situation escalates and drives up oil prices, leading to rising global inflation expectations, it may reignite the "anti-dollar + anti-inflation asset" logic that benefits BTC.
On the daily chart, BTC closed with a large bearish candlestick yesterday, breaking below technical moving average support, and this morning it fell sharply, piercing the near-month low of around 103. The K-line over the past three days shows a pattern of high-level fluctuations and a significant bearish candlestick, reflecting the exhaustion of bullish momentum, a cooling of market risk appetite, and notable active selling pressure. Currently, it is in a short-term pressure release phase, and the mid-structure has not been broken. If it can build a support platform around 95, combined with ETF capital inflow and a shift in Federal Reserve policy as macro catalysts, it may challenge previous highs. For intraday short-term operations, key support levels to watch are in the 102-103 range, while resistance levels focus on 105-106.
ETH: The daily chart shows that ETH failed to stabilize at the 2800 point after a volume-driven surge, indicating that the main players did not meet expectations in their testing. The current pullback, accompanied by volume release, reflects active profit-taking or position reduction by funds. If it retraces to the 2380-2480 range and stabilizes with reduced volume, it can be seen as a buying opportunity; however, if it breaks below this range with increased volume, the risk of a trend reversal should be noted.
Currently, the ETH price is at the lower edge of the near-month range around 2480, with a slight rebound verifying the effectiveness of this support level. The market is awaiting confirmation of rebound momentum after support. In the short term (within 3 days), maintaining above 2480 allows for entry; in the medium term (within 2 weeks), if it stabilizes above 2700 with accompanying volume, the target can be set at 3050. If a structural breakout above 3050 is achieved in Q3, it will initiate the second phase of the bull market, potentially pushing prices into the 34-35 range, especially with ETF approvals and macro liquidity easing. Intraday operations should focus on the 2480-2450 support zone and the 2560-2580 resistance levels.
Altcoins: The escalation of geopolitical risks has triggered a systemic decline in altcoins, which, as high-risk assets, have seen their overall decline significantly exceed that of mainstream coins, highlighting a concentrated rise in risk-averse sentiment. The large volume drop in the past 24 hours indicates that risk capital is accelerating its exit towards mainstream assets or adopting a wait-and-see approach. Recently active sectors such as MEME, L2 scaling, and AI have experienced sharp declines resembling a guillotine effect.
In the short term (within a week), if Bitcoin falls below 103 and Ethereum loses 2480, altcoins may face accelerated declines. In the absence of new capital inflows (such as a large injection of stablecoins) and while panic sentiment remains unstable, it is advisable to maintain a high level of vigilance and hold a neutral position. In the medium term, with the upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds in late June, if the market shows a capital-absorbing effect and Ethereum stabilizes, leading L1/L2 projects may seize the opportunity to launch on exchanges, presenting short-term explosive potential.
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