I. Three Fundamental Events Reshaping the Market Landscape

1. ETF Approval Delays Again: The U.S. SEC has extended the review period for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, Grayscale Hedera ETF, and VanEck Avalanche ETF, cooling market expectations for compliant capital entry. Historical data shows that ETF approval delays often trigger a 5%-8% short-term pullback in the corresponding cryptocurrencies.

2. Coinbase Listing Dynamics: Sonic (S) has been included in the listing roadmap. As a Layer 1 public chain in the Solana ecosystem, S may replicate the initial 30% price increase seen with ARB, necessitating attention to the liquidity speculation window 72 hours before listing.

3. Significant Regulatory Policy Shift: The SEC has officially repealed the "Custody Rule" proposal from the Gensler era, marking a shift in regulation from "high-pressure enforcement" to "compliance guidance." This change will lower the entry threshold for institutions (such as pension funds allocating to crypto assets), with an expectation that 5-8 traditional financial institutions will announce cryptocurrency custody solutions in Q3.

II. Bull-Bear Game After Technical Breakout

BTC: 103,000 Support as the Bull-Bear Divide

• Daily Level: A significant volume breakout below the key support of 105,000 USD has formed a "headless guillotine" pattern, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average confirming a death cross. The cumulative decline over the past three days exceeds 7%, with a net outflow of 1.2 billion USD from major funds, indicating signs of profit-taking by institutions.

• Short-term Key Levels:

  • Support: 102,500 USD (200-hour moving average), 95,000 USD (starting point from December 2024)

  • Resistance: 105,500 USD (previous support turned resistance), 108,000 USD (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)

• Macroeconomic Transmission Logic: The June interest rate meeting maintained rates, with July rate cut expectations pushed to Q4. The dollar index rebounded to 103.5, leading to a sell-off in cryptocurrencies as "high-risk assets." However, caution is warranted as oil prices break above 85 USD per barrel, which may restart Bitcoin's "anti-inflation properties."

  

ETH: 2,480 Support Level Determines Mid-term Trend

• Daily Level: After failing to break above 2,800 USD, the price has retreated, with trading volume increasing by 150%, indicating profit-taking by bulls. The current price is testing the bottom of the 2,480 USD range (the lower bound of the fluctuation range over the past month). If this level is lost, it will drop to 2,380 USD (50-week moving average).

• Cycle Projection:

  • Short-term (3 days): Holding above 2,480 USD allows for light long positions, targeting 2,580 USD;

  • Mid-term (2 weeks): Stabilizing above 2,700 USD initiates a main rally, potentially reaching 3,050 USD with ETF approvals;

  • Long-term (Q3): Breaking above 3,050 USD enters the second phase of a bull market, targeting 3,400-3,500 USD.

    

III. Altcoin Strategy: Avoid Systemic Risks, Position in Three Major Directions

1. Risk Warning: In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, MEME coins (NEIRO, WIF), AI sector (WLD), and L2 expansion (ARB) have shown a "headless guillotine" pattern, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 15%. Historical data indicates that when the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL) exceeds 45, altcoins average a decline 1.8 times that of mainstream coins.

2. Positioning Window:

   • Compliance Blue Chips: COMP (DeFi compliance leader), MKR (MakerDAO governance token), with institutional holdings expected to rise to 15% after regulatory easing;

   • Expected Listing Targets: Tracking the Coinbase listing list, S (Sonic) and JTO (staking protocol) may replicate the UNI listing trend;

   • Downside Resilient Tracks: RWA (real-world asset on-chain) sector, such as PENDLE (interest rate derivatives protocol), has low correlation with traditional finance, with volatility only 60% that of BTC.

3. Operational Discipline: When Bitcoin falls below 103,000 USD and ETH below 2,480 USD, altcoin positions should be reduced to below 10%; wait for the U.S. Treasury's maturity wave in late June, and observe whether Ethereum can stabilize above 2,700 USD before repositioning.

Harmonious Risk Control: Altcoin positions have been reduced to 5%, retaining BTC/ETH hedging positions, with stop-loss levels set at 102,000 USD and 2,450 USD, respectively. As market volatility intensifies, it is recommended to adopt a "cash + mainstream coin" combination, waiting for a macro liquidity turning point.

The cryptocurrency market is ever-changing, and volatility is constant. The above analysis is merely a personal trading thought sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.

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