This week the market is relatively calm, with Trump not making any major moves. Aside from the steel tariffs imposed last Friday, he has only maintained the communication rhythm with China. The market has highly adapted to the TACO strategy, generally taking a response path of shorting first and then repairing, especially when Trump's rhetoric is most intense, which ironically suggests the possibility of a short-term pause.

The current adjustment period for "reciprocal tariffs" is set for July 8, and tariff-related news may continue to dominate market sentiment over the next month. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains cautious in the absence of clear inflation or employment pressures, with rate cut expectations continually being pushed back. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut in the third quarter is currently below 24%.

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