In a comment at the end of yesterday's article, there was a message like this:

"What I am worried about is that Bitcoin is currently fluctuating at a high level, while Ethereum and other assets are still at the bottom. The four-year cycle seems unrelated to Ethereum and other assets, but they still plummet with a slight correction in Bitcoin. The main reason is still the lack of innovation. However, according to the four-year cycle, this year is a bull market for Bitcoin, and by next year, if Bitcoin turns bearish, other assets might drop to the bottom again. Moreover, if the U.S. stock market really crashes, then assets other than Bitcoin would be in dire straits, which is hard to imagine…"

This reader has thought of a combination of three worst-case scenarios:

If Bitcoin turns from bull to bear next year, it will drag down the crypto ecosystem that hasn't even entered a bull market yet (including Ethereum, of course).

If the U.S. stock market really crashes, all crypto assets, including Bitcoin, might be doomed, which would be adding insult to injury.

Ethereum and other crypto assets are already at low levels, and if the above two adverse factors are added, the situation will be even more dire.

I believe these three scenarios are indeed very likely to happen. The fact that the investor can think of this combination indicates a certain level of rationality, unlike many who excitedly shout "XX million by the end of the year."

In a relatively rational situation, the next steps are not difficult; it's still what I shared in previous articles:

Before taking action, we should try to think through all the worst-case scenarios and then plan how we will respond when these worst-case scenarios occur.

This is how I am preparing:

First, the trend of this round of market is very difficult to grasp, which means that the method of selling when Bitcoin or Ethereum is overvalued may not work well.

For example, if Bitcoin rises to $120,000, should I sell? I wouldn't sell because that price is just a dilemma; it's not high enough to justify selling, but if I sell and want to buy back, it would be very difficult. Similarly, if Ethereum reaches $5,000 or $6,000, should I sell? I also wouldn't sell; it's another dilemma.

Unless Bitcoin or Ethereum rises to an absurd price, I will likely just hold onto them without selling. But thinking about them reaching an absurd price is something we can enjoy for a moment; we shouldn't take it too seriously.

Since I will likely hold onto them without selling this round, it means that if the extreme scenarios of the three situations above occur, I will probably just hold onto them until the next bull market arrives.

However, holding onto them until the next bull market comes is not an easy time. There won't be brilliant scenery or thriving scenes during this period; most of the time will be spent in lonely suffering.

Since there will be such a difficult period ahead, investors need to think clearly about whether the assets they hold, especially those with large positions (like Bitcoin and Ethereum), are valuable and have a future.

In my view, this is the fundamental and key point to endure hardship and see the light again.

If this point is not clear in the depths of one's soul, and there is hesitation deep within, it will be absolutely impossible to endure the upcoming period.

What does it mean to "not be clear in the depths of one's soul, and to hesitate deep within"?

For example, hearing rumors and then doubting, is XXX not doing well?

For example, institutions are reducing their holdings, and then doubting, is XXX not doing well?

For example, the whole network is focused on XXX, and then doubting, is XXX not doing well?

…

Many such examples can be cited.

If any of the above examples cause doubt in the holder, it indicates that the holder did not buy these assets because they believed in them, nor because they understood them, but because they wanted to speculate. In the process of inquiring around, they heard that there was a ship that could reach the "golden mountain" tomorrow, and they jumped on board without hesitation. As for whether this ship would take them to a new land to mine for gold or to San Francisco to work as laborers, they had no idea.

However, I believe that selling the assets and positions out of doubt at this time is not necessarily a bad thing. Holding onto the assets that one feels secure with or simply holding cash to live a normal life is itself a good thing.

The worst scenario is selling and then buying back due to various rumors, as this back-and-forth will only make things worse.

If investors have completely blocked out the doubts and hesitations mentioned above, believing that the heavy positions they hold are valuable and have a future, then what remains to be done is simple:

Take another look at whether the funds tied up in these positions are needed in the next few years.

If some money is needed, then sell part of the position to ensure a good living.

If all the money is idle and has no impact on one's life in the coming years, then completely set this investment aside, ignore it, and persist through it.

No wealth comes easily.

Unless there is smoke rising from the ancestral grave, ordinary people must possess qualities that others do not have in order to obtain wealth that is unattainable for most.

Where do these qualities come from?

They are forged in the midst of various trials.

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