In the comments of yesterday's article, many readers expressed doubts about my statement that Bitcoin enters a bear market after falling 20% from its peak.
When I wrote that part, I recalled having previously organized historical data on this topic and retained the impression of 20%, so I wrote it that way.
Later, I thought again, and this 20% is an index decline used in the stock market to measure bear market standards.
So, is there a similar decline standard for Bitcoin?
I checked the data on Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/), which only has data since April 2013. Therefore, I summarized the data starting from that date:
I reviewed all instances where Bitcoin, after exceeding the previous bull market peak (equivalent to entering a new bull market), experienced a maximum decline of over 20% before reaching the peak of the new bull market.
Here, I chose 20% as the decline because I consider 20% to be a significant fluctuation that could change the trend, while declines of less than 20% are regarded as normal fluctuations.
In reviewing this historical data from Coingecko, for statistical convenience, I used daily price movements.
In the data starting from 2013, the first bull market peak was on November 29, 2013, when Bitcoin reached a peak of $1,101.
I used this as the starting point.
On February 21, 2017, Bitcoin exceeded $1,101 and entered a new bull market.
From March 3 to March 24, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $1,289 to a low of $940, a decline of 27%.
From June 11 to July 16, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $3,013 to a low of $1,927, a decline of 36%.
From September 1 to September 14, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $4,863 to a low of $3,100, a decline of 36%.
From November 8 to November 12, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $7,461 to a low of $5,866, a decline of 21%.
On December 16, 2017, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $19,665.
On December 17, 2020, Bitcoin exceeded $19,665 and entered a new bull market.
From January 9 to January 28, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $40,815 to a low of $30,445, a decline of 25%.
From February 22 to March 1, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $57,669 to a low of $44,970, a decline of 22%.
From April 14 to July 21, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to a low of $29,971, a decline of 53%.
It is worth noting that during the period from April 14 to July 21, the famous "519 crash" occurred. Excluding the "519 crash," Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to $48,981 from April 14 to April 26, with a decline of only 24%.
On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $67,617.
From the data of these two bull markets:
In the 2017 bull market:
After entering the bull market, Bitcoin experienced a decline of over 20% four times after each new high. In each of these significant declines, three occurred within a month, and only one just exceeded one month.
The time span from when Bitcoin entered the bull market (breaking the previous high in February 2017) to the peak of the bull market was 10 months.
The first such decline's low point was in March 2017, and from that low point to the peak of that bull market on December 16 of the same year, the time interval was 9 months.
In the 2021 bull market:
After entering the bull market, Bitcoin experienced a decline of over 20% three times after each new high (including the "519 crash"). Excluding the "519 crash," each of these occurred within a month, while the "519 crash" lasted over a month.
The time span from when Bitcoin entered the bull market (breaking the previous high in December 2020) to the peak of the bull market was 11 months.
The first such decline's low point was in January 2021, and from that low point to the peak of that bull market on November 9 of the same year, the time interval was 10 months.
Summarizing the characteristics of these two bull markets:
After the second entry into the bull market, the number of such declines has decreased.
In terms of the magnitude of the declines, if we exclude the second "519 crash," the magnitude of such declines in the second bull market is also smaller than in the first.
The duration of the majority of significant declines in both bull markets did not exceed one month.
The time span from entering the bull market to reaching the peak of the bull market in both cases was one year.
The time span from the first decline's low point to the peak of the bull market in both cases was also one year.
Now, let's look at the current market situation:
Bitcoin exceeded $67,617 on March 9, 2024, entering its own bull market.
From March 14 to September 7, 2024, Bitcoin fell from $73,097 to a low of $53,923, a decline of 26%.
From December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, Bitcoin fell from $106,074 to a low of $76,329, a decline of 28%.
Although both of these declines are not large, the time spans are significantly extended, spanning nearly half a year. From this perspective, this time clearly shows different characteristics compared to the declines in the past two bull markets.
So, how does Bitcoin's movement correlate with the U.S. stock market?
We can take a look at the S&P 500 index's performance.
The S&P 500 index rose from March 14 to September 7, 2024; from December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, it fell from approximately 6,050 to 5,456, a decline of 10%.
This trend does not resemble Bitcoin's either.
If we consider the current bull market for Bitcoin (starting in March 2024), theoretically, the bull market should end in March 2025. Clearly, this pattern does not apply this time.
However, if we calculate from the first occurrence of the above decline, theoretically, the bull market would end in September 2025.
Whether the actual situation will unfold this way remains to be seen.
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