Author: cyclop

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

These are the clearest bull market signals I've seen in my seven years in the crypto market:

• BTC is close to its all-time high
• Retail interest is near historical lows
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken a three-year downtrend
• The altcoin index has rebounded from a range low

Each of these factors has previously triggered an altcoin season. Now they are all converging, creating a resonance.

Is this really the beginning of the next altcoin season?

I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but I genuinely think we are finally about to witness a surge in altcoins.

In this lengthy post, I will analyze in detail:

• How market sentiment is shifting and why I am bullish
• What changes have occurred that ultimately make an altcoin season a reality?
• Important future catalysts
• Key indicators and their signaling
• Which altcoins might surge
• How to build a suitable altcoin season portfolio
• How to research hard-to-implement projects

I have been in the cryptocurrency space for seven years and have witnessed numerous market structures that triggered altcoin seasons.

Yes, the cycles have indeed changed, and I have detailed the process and reasons for these changes in the referenced post.

However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more sustained altcoin season, and this trend does not require Bitcoin's price to soar to $150,000 to support it.

The narrative surrounding BTC has fundamentally shifted, from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment target for macro hedging, the sixth largest asset by market cap (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and a primary countermeasure for isolated or high-inflation countries.

An increase in Bitcoin's price from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the start of an altcoin season.

The magnitude of Bitcoin's surges (in percentage terms) will diminish, as will its drops. As market capitalization expands, its price volatility will become such. Each year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store of value asset becomes increasingly evident, rather than a speculative asset.

This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.

High-market-cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "alternatives to Bitcoin." They are now viewed as tech companies operating within a broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, and Solana is akin to high-performance infrastructure, and so on.

This shift in perception has also occurred in past market cycles, each time marking the beginning of an altcoin season. Now, let's discuss what actual changes have occurred that ultimately make an altcoin season possible.

After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke a three-year downtrend against BTC. Every skeptic turned into a believer. Bitcoin's dominance just experienced its most severe three-day drop since November 2024. The sentiment in the altcoin market has plummeted, and even after this slight uptick, retail participation remains at historical lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade changed the game. This solution also addressed the biggest obstacle facing Ethereum-driven altcoin season surges: issues at the user interface and user experience level.

Retail Index

Despite widespread adoption, the retail index is currently near historical lows. This factor has always played a crucial role in the early stages of past altcoin seasons. Now, it is once again a positive signal. Let me elaborate:

It is important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when they are in absolute prime condition and bottom out when in despair. Altcoins are still in a dire situation, but from this moment on, the only way is to rise against the trend and rebound from the bottom.

Catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. Triggers for a decline? None, the market is extremely bearish. Even if it rises twofold from the bottom, the retail index (in part) has not appeared or met the standard. Finally, we have reached a moment: even if altcoins have already risen fourfold, it still seems possible to rise another tenfold.

ETH/BTC Chart

The ETH/BTC pair has been in a downtrend for five consecutive months, negatively impacting ETH. Its price and attention have both declined, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking through key resistance, Ethereum's price surged, releasing a strong signal for the rise of altcoins.

Now let's look at some key indicators, such as:

• Global liquidity
• Stablecoin index
• Altcoin season index

All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and liquidity influx into the crypto market, heralding the arrival of an altcoin season.

But this time, the altcoin season will be different.

In the last cycle, there were fewer altcoins, so almost all coins surged. This time is different: severe oversupply makes it difficult for all altcoins to maintain their upward momentum. It is likely that less than 10% will see significant changes, and the key is how to find these potentials.

Your choices depend on the level of risk you are willing to take and how much profit you hope to gain.

• Large-cap stocks = low profit + low risk
• Mid-cap stocks = medium profit + medium risk
• Small-cap stocks = high profit + high risk

Altcoin Research Methodology

If it is a high-market-cap and practical token, rather than a newly emerged meme coin, it is best to pay attention, as the risk of encountering scams is lower in this case. Tokens can be analyzed based on the following aspects:

• Market capitalization
• Liquidity
• Trading volume
• Listing status on centralized and decentralized exchanges

Then create a list of altcoins you like.

Follow trusted KOLs and investigate whether they are paying attention to or mentioning the project.

If a project is being followed by many KOLs but they themselves are not invested, then it is likely to be garbage.

Analyzing Projects

Start conducting detailed research on the altcoins in your list.

Check the following:

1) What is the core concept of the project? Is there market demand?

2) How is the product quality? Please take a detailed look at its official website and social media platforms.

3) Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?

Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns

Hundredfold returns will not be realized in a day, a week, or even a month.

By deeply researching potential projects and holding them long-term.

Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.

The most important principle:

Do not over-diversify your holdings. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below illustrates the reason.

Conclusion

Most indicators clearly signal that an altcoin season is approaching, and the rest is to be well-prepared. Remember: if you believe in everything, it is equivalent to believing in nothing. Do not pick dozens of projects; select at most five and maintain a cautious attitude.

Only in this way can you capture that less than 10% of potential altcoins that are expected to achieve hundredfold returns. If that is not enough, just look at this chart and you will understand.

0/30 bull market peak indicators have been triggered. Strange, right?

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