If you haven't figured out who's going to take over for you, then you might be the one to take over.

Author: wassielawyer

Translator: Peng Sun, Foresight News

I'm really annoyed by the altcoins and VCs, especially because over the past few years, I have been involved in dozens of investments as a founder, advisor, and investor. I have seen a lot of real things happen, and today I'm here to share my views with you.

The current problem is that institutions are only going for mainstream coins, while retail investors are going for altcoins. The only "smart money" that would take over for VCs has also participated in private placements. Who the hell is going to take over this tens of billions of dollars valuation?

The first point is easy to understand. Bitcoin ETF (perhaps Ethereum ETF as well) is attracting new investors. As time goes on, larger and more conservative funds approving the purchase of ETFs internally, the capital flow may become faster. Unlike us who change positions every 5 minutes, large institutions and funds move much slower. And I believe that when they make their next ETF purchase, they are likely to invest more in BTC.

But the funds flowing into BTC (perhaps also ETH) will not be used to purchase tokens in the ZK, DA, AI, gaming, intent-centric, L1/L2/L3/L4 tracks. According to the usual operation, you would privately participate in the seed round with a valuation of $100 million, because it is definitely going to increase tenfold at the TGE, with a valuation starting at least at $1 billion. Or you would invest $10-20 million in the valuation of a certain DApp, because you know its future valuation will be at least $80-100 million.

At this point, you might think, "Oh, wait, that's me!" Then you are likely to be a "leek" survivor in 2022. In the last cycle, you participated in the VC round, worked hard in the bear market, built relationships and social circles, and shared "alpha". In this cycle, you have become the "smart money", waiting for the leeks to take over for you at 10 times the price.

But where are the ones taking over? The situation has changed now. Everyone will buy BTC, but you don't have it, because it can only go up to 3 times at most. What you have in your hands are the altcoins expected to increase by 30 times, while those idiots who have no resources or can't find alpha are all going for altcoins.

This leads to the second point, if you haven't participated in the private placement or seed round, would you still take over for VCs? Probably not, you might be a stupid leek, but not that stupid. After all, the point of trading coins is to find someone to take over at a high price, whether it's cat coins, dog coins, or frog coins. To be honest, who would really read the white paper to understand whether this technology is really more decentralized? Who cares if its TPS is really higher than Solana's? No one will really care about the so-called resistance to censorship, efficiency, or scalability.

Some people might say, "Hey, wassielawyer, you're too radical. There must be people investing in projects with strong technology!" Of course there are, but the problem is, they have already invested in the seed round. This brings us back to the question, who will take over for VCs? Those new leeks who have no connections, don't buy mainstream coins or altcoins? First of all, I think these people might be mentally ill. Secondly, if your friends are all as lucky as comic book heroes, then everyone else is just poor and can't make any money.

In 2020, everyone was receiving relief funds from the US government, except for going to the casino, there was nothing to do. But now, inflation is not decreasing, rent for ordinary people is higher, mortgage loans are high, but wages have not increased, and they simply don't have time to buy those new altcoins that are skyrocketing all the time.

Do you still think that after Bitcoin or altcoins skyrocket, the altcoins will have another round of gains? There might be some, but most altcoins won't have a chance. In this industry, BTC holders are the least willing to take risks, and those who got rich from trading altcoins will cash out and buy Lamborghinis.

From the third quarter of this year to the end of next year, there will definitely be hundreds or even thousands of projects TGE, but the market no longer sees the influx of large funds like in the last cycle, and the little money coming in definitely cannot digest so many projects. The market makers of good projects may pull up the price before the token unlocks for sale, and junk coins will probably go straight to zero?

Because if you haven't figured out who's going to take over for you, then you might be the one to take over, and those who took over for you are the seed round and A-round investors, you just don't know it yet.

Having said that, I still believe that the performance of some altcoins will be better than others. Projects with large supply, many holding addresses, few lockups, and real technical content or use cases, and those who know how to market will definitely continue to attract smart money, but not all coins will be like this.

But to be honest, this topic is quite hypocritical, because I have already invested in some L1, L2, DApp projects in the angel round that I really believe in, and I also hold a large amount of altcoins, which annoys me. I hope I'm wrong and someone will take over for me.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。