2025年初，比特币（BTC）市场经历了一番剧烈波动，如今重新站上10万美元大关，刷新了历史最高纪录，市场情绪也随之高涨。

At the start of 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) market experienced intense volatility. Now, the leading cryptocurrency has reclaimed the $100,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and reigniting bullish sentiment across the market.

然而，随着价格不断攀升，一个值得关注的问题也浮出水面：那些长期持有比特币、历经多轮牛熊的资深投资者，是否已经开始选择套现？本文将通过链上数据深入探讨这些长期持币者的最新动向，分析当前的获利了结行为究竟是市场潜在风险的信号，还是比特币自然市场周期中的正常表现。

However, as prices continue to surge, a key question has emerged: Are long-term holders — seasoned investors who have weathered multiple bull and bear cycles — beginning to take profits? This article dives into on-chain data to examine the latest behavior of Bitcoin's long-term holders, exploring whether the recent wave of profit-taking signals a looming market risk or simply reflects a healthy phase within Bitcoin’s broader market cycle.

Signs of Profit-Taking Begin to Emerge

SOPR，即Spent Output Profit Ratio，是在比特币网络中反映资产盈亏程度的一项指标。观察近几周的变化，我们可以明显看到投资者实现利润的趋势正在上升。图中绿色柱状图的集中出现，表明比特币价格在7.4万美元到7.5万美元区间上涨并突破10万美元创下新高后，确实有相当一部分投资者选择了获利了结。

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key metric used to assess realized gains and losses across the Bitcoin network, has shown a notable uptick in recent weeks. This suggests that an increasing number of investors are locking in profits. The clustering of green bars on the chart indicates a surge in realized profits, particularly following Bitcoin’s breakout from the $74,000–$75,000 range to new highs above $100,000.

尽管这种情况可能在短期内引发对价格上行受阻的担忧，但从更广阔的链上数据角度来看，这属于牛市中常见的市场表现。仅凭这一现象，并不能说明当前已进入周期的顶部阶段。

While this trend may raise short-term concerns about potential resistance to further price gains, broader on-chain indicators suggest this is a typical pattern during bull markets. On its own, this profit-taking activity does not signal that Bitcoin has reached the top of its current cycle.

比特币SOPR指标。来源：BiTBO 

长期持币量持续上升

Long-Term Holder Supply Keeps Growing Despite Price Surge即便比特币价格不断攀升，那些持有时间超过155天的比特币数量仍在稳步增加。这一趋势并不一定代表市场上正在出现大规模的新一轮买入，而更可能说明许多比特币正被静置未动，逐渐转变为长期持有状态。

Even as Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, the amount of BTC held for more than 155 days is steadily increasing. This doesn’t necessarily point to a fresh wave of accumulation, but rather suggests that a significant portion of coins are remaining untouched—aging into long-term holdings.

也就是说，不少在2024年底或2025年初买入比特币的投资者仍保持坚定持仓，逐渐迈入长期持有者的行列。这种持币结构的变化，是牛市早中阶段常见的积极信号，目前尚未显示出市场出现广泛抛售的迹象。

In other words, many investors who entered the market in late 2024 or early 2025 are holding firm, gradually transitioning into long-term holders. This shift in ownership structure is typical of the early to mid-phases of a bull market and, so far, shows no signs of widespread distribution or panic selling.

比特币长期持有量变化。来源：BiTBO 

机构借助比特币ETF加快持仓增速

Institutions Accelerate Bitcoin Accumulation via ETFs

贝莱德旗下的iShares比特币信托（IBIT）于5月份增持了约8,000枚比特币，价值近8.77亿美元，创下当月最大单笔资金流入纪录。这一交易使贝莱德持有的比特币总量达到63.9万枚，稳居全球第二大比特币持有者，仅次于比特币创始人中本聪。

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) significantly ramped up its Bitcoin holdings in May, purchasing approximately 8,000 BTC worth nearly $877 million. This marked the largest single-day capital inflow for the fund that month. With this acquisition, BlackRock's total Bitcoin holdings have reached 639,000 BTC, securing its position as the second-largest Bitcoin holder in the world—trailing only Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

与此同时，美国前总统特朗普旗下的社交媒体公司——特朗普媒体与科技集团，计划通过融资约30亿美元，用于购买比特币及其他加密资产，显示出企业对数字货币的浓厚兴趣。

At the same time, Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company affiliated with former U.S. President Donald Trump, announced plans to raise around $3 billion in funding, part of which is intended for purchasing Bitcoin and other crypto assets. This move underscores growing corporate interest in digital currencies.

Blockstream首席执行官Adam Back推测，美国政府可能持有多达100万枚比特币。若此消息属实，必将对市场产生深远影响。 

Meanwhile, Blockstream CEO Adam Back speculated that the U.S. government could be holding as much as 1 million BTC. If confirmed, such a holding would have profound implications for the market.

此外，微策略（Strategy）公司也在本月四次增持比特币，最近一次增持平均价为每枚10.6237万美元，共购入4020枚，这笔购币资金主要来源于5月19日至25日期间出售多项股权工具所得。

Additionally, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) made four separate Bitcoin purchases in May. The most recent buy involved 4,020 BTC at an average price of $106,237 per coin. The acquisition was funded primarily through the sale of various equity instruments between May 19 and May 25.

全球债市危机推动比特币避险属性升温

Global Bond Market Turmoil Boosts Bitcoin’s Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset

随着债券收益率攀升至多年高点，美国国债传统避险地位面临挑战。当前，10年期国债收益率达到4.48%，30年期收益率更是升至5.15%，为2023年10月以来最高水平。美国高达36.8万亿美元的国债和预计2025年超过9520亿美元的利息支出，给政府财政带来巨大压力。

As bond yields soar to multi-year highs, the traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasury bonds is being seriously challenged. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.48%, while the 30-year yield has surged to 5.15% — its highest level since October 2023. With the U.S. national debt ballooning to $36.8 trillion and interest payments projected to exceed $952 billion by 2025, the pressure on federal finances is mounting rapidly.

日本作为美国国债最大海外持有国，持有规模达1.13万亿美元，但其30年期国债收益率自今年4月以来从负利率飙升至0.5%，并创下3.1%的历史新高。日本首相石破茂警告，日本财政状况已“超过希腊”，突显主权债务问题的全球蔓延。

Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries with $1.13 trillion in holdings, is facing its own debt pressures. Since April, the yield on Japan’s 30-year government bonds has skyrocketed from negative rates to 0.5%, and recently hit a record high of 3.1%. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that Japan’s fiscal situation is now “worse than Greece’s,” highlighting the increasingly global nature of the sovereign debt crisis.

在债券市场承压的同时，比特币作为一种政治中立的价值储存手段，获得了机构投资者的青睐。比特币现货ETF管理资产规模突破1040亿美元，创历史新高，反映出机构投资者在传统市场波动中对比特币避险功能的认可和需求日益增长。

Amid this mounting pressure on bond markets, Bitcoin is gaining traction among institutional investors as a politically neutral store of value. Assets under management (AUM) in spot Bitcoin ETFs have surged past $104 billion — an all-time high — reflecting growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties amid traditional market instability.

Matrixport：一直坚定看多，但近期宜“落袋为安” 

Matrixport: Maintaining a Strongly Bullish View, but Advises Taking Profits Recently

比特币在突破11万美元创下历史新高后，近期价格持续在高位震荡。过去几天，比特币一直在10.6万美元至11万美元之间反复波动，多空博弈加剧，市场情绪也趋于谨慎。这种震荡格局反映出投资者在经历大幅上涨后开始观望，短期内缺乏明确方向，等待新的宏观信号或资金入场来推动下一阶段行情。 

After breaking through $110,000 to reach a new all-time high, Bitcoin’s price has recently been consolidating at elevated levels. Over the past few days, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $106,000 and $110,000, with intensified battles between bulls and bears, leading to a more cautious market sentiment. This sideways movement reflects investors taking a wait-and-see approach after the sharp rally, with no clear short-term direction as they await new macro signals or fresh capital inflows to drive the next phase of the market.

截至星期二（5月27日）下午4时，比特币价格徘徊在10.89万美元左右。

As of 4 PM on Tuesday, May 27, Bitcoin was hovering around $108,900.

 加密金融产品服务平台在星期一发布分析表示：“比特币正在创下新的历史新高——但却没有通常伴随的狂热迹象。交易量依然低迷，资金费率也显示出市场情绪平淡。 我们从四月中旬以来一直坚定看多，而比特币也确实表现亮眼。但要想维持当前的上涨动能，可能需要更广泛的市场参与。在当前阶段，适当落袋为安或许是明智之举。” 

A crypto financial services platform released an analysis on Monday stating: “Bitcoin is reaching new all-time highs—but without the usual signs of frenzy. Trading volumes remain subdued, and funding rates indicate a muted market sentiment. We have maintained a bullish stance since mid-April, and Bitcoin has indeed performed well. However, sustaining the current upward momentum may require broader market participation. At this stage, taking some profits might be a prudent move.”

总结：

Summary:

从现状来看，长期持币者的卖出行为仅属轻微，距离历史上预示市场见顶的大规模抛售尚有很大差距。虽然部分投资者开始获利了结，但整体节奏平稳，属于健康市场中的正常现象。考虑到牛市所处的阶段以及机构和散户的持仓状况，链上数据显示市场依然具备较强的支撑，未来在资金持续流入的推动下，价格仍有较大上涨潜力。 

Current on-chain data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders are only engaging in mild profit-taking, far from the large-scale sell-offs that have historically signaled market tops. While some investors have begun to realize profits, the pace remains steady and is considered a normal, healthy phenomenon in a bull market. Given the current stage of the cycle, combined with strong institutional and retail positioning, the market continues to show robust support. With capital inflows remaining strong, there is still significant upside potential for Bitcoin in the near future.

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原文: 《 比特币（BTC）涨到11万后，资深玩家开始“悄悄兑现”了吗？ 》

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