TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Oct 21, 2026 02:13
Honestly, I underestimated SpaceX's earnings report this time. I knew they'd be profitable and might beat expectations, but I didn’t think they’d exceed them by this much: In Q3, SpaceX’s total revenue surged 161% year-over-year to nearly $14.6 billion, with net profit hitting $4.4 billion—14% and 134% higher than analysts’ expectations, respectively. Capital expenditures were over 30% of revenue, roughly in line with forecasts. Cloud services, the acquisition of Cursor, and growth in Grok applications drove AI business Super Intelligence (SI) revenue up to $7.56 billion, making it the company’s largest revenue source for the first time—20% higher than expected. Business capital expenditures reached $16.4 billion, accounting for 84% of total spending. Connectivity business revenue grew 69% year-over-year, with Starlink users increasing to 13.6 million. Aerospace business revenue rose 6%, with Starship contributing revenue for the first time. However, R&D expenses continued to weigh on the segment, resulting in an operating loss of $7 million. The most noteworthy part of this earnings report is that the AI (SI) division’s operating profit has turned positive, reaching $431 million—breaking the old narrative that only Starlink was profitable. The market also received stronger growth guidance and indications of greater capital needs. What really caught everyone off guard was the sudden formal announcement of the SpaceX-Tesla merger. Although rumors have been circulating for a while, the timing was unexpected, especially since SPCX and TSLA stock prices don’t seem ready for the merger yet. They haven’t reached the ideal levels where SPCX is relatively high and TSLA is relatively low, which would favor Musk in the merger. Logically, if Tesla’s acquisition premium remains unchanged and other conditions stay the same, the higher SPCX’s stock price is, the fewer shares need to be issued, and the less dilution SPCX’s original shareholders face. That’s why I previously thought it would make more sense to push SPCX’s stock price higher before announcing the merger. Once announced, TSLA’s stock price would likely rise, while SPCX’s stock price would naturally face downward pressure due to dilution. During the earnings call, Musk confirmed the formation of a special independent board committee for both companies while answering a Deutsche Bank analyst’s question. He explicitly stated that he would not participate in discussions due to a conflict of interest, and the committee has not yet reached any agreement on transaction terms. Perhaps Musk made this decision based on his unique circumstances (including his personal political support for Trump and factors specific to SPCX). In any case, for SPCX’s stock price, the next steps are to watch Tesla’s performance and then monitor the impact of massive unlocked shares hitting the market. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT—10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, enjoy dividend payouts.
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