PAPER surges to 0.03, while receiving dividends and shorting, can miners make money twice? A few days ago, when we discussed Papertrade, the most attractive mechanism was that trading losses or even liquidation could earn PAPER But there was another question at the time: how many PAPER did you get, it couldn't be directly converted into how many dollars you had already earned Now, PAPER can trade contracts on Hyperliquid, with prices reaching around $0.03 last night Currently, the para: APER perpetual contract deployed by Paragon is online, with a maximum leverage of 3 times and a margin requirement for each position Native PAPER still cannot be transferred and there is no corresponding spot market. This contract is traded based on its own order book, not by transferring the PAPER held by miners to the exchange for sale Why did some miners start short selling One possible idea is to continue staking native PAPER, retaining USDC allocation, while using contract short positions to try to hedge against future token price risks There is an example of on chain data, where a certain address holds approximately 8.51 million PAPER coins and opens approximately 3.6 million empty positions, equivalent to approximately 42% of its coin holdings Of course, there is another situation A miner holding approximately 3.39 million PAPER coins opened approximately 8.95 million empty positions around $0.012, which is about 2.64 times the amount of coins held. When the price rose to approximately $0.018, the empty positions were liquidated, resulting in a loss of approximately $55000 This is no longer just a hedge against existing holdings, but an additional directional short exposure Some people may ask, how to achieve long short hedging and earn pure PAPER? In Papertrade, it is possible to establish positions in opposite directions for the same subject, in an attempt to reduce the impact of market fluctuations and generate PAPER on the losing side. It occurs in different markets and carries different risks compared to shorting PAPER on Hyperliquid. Moreover, losing while earning does not mean that both sides can ultimately completely offset each other Because Papertrade will reduce profits and charge related profit fees; Losses will not be discounted in the same proportion Using a simplified example to understand: assuming that the original profit and loss on both sides are a loss of $100 and a gain of $100 respectively, but the profit side only retrieves $80 in reality, then the combination still loses $20 This $20, divided by the actual number of PAPER obtained, is closer to the cost of obtaining the token this time, rather than just focusing on the $100 loss leg This example has not yet included execution differences, liquidation losses, or subsequent pledge distributions. Therefore, after the contract price appears, miners can compare it, and it is not as simple as "whether the PAPER price is high or not" But rather, it is the actual cost of obtaining it that one has paid, and how much room is left between the contract price that can be executed This space will continue to change The official coinage curve stipulates that during the normal decay phase, the higher the cumulative progress, the less PAPER can be obtained for each eligible loss of one dollar According to estimates, from October 14th to 18th, this quantity decreased from about 42 to about 11.7. If two snapshots have the same caliber and other execution conditions remain unchanged, the corresponding cost of acquiring a single coin may increase by about 3.6 times for the same net loss Looking at the cost changes of Papertrade again According to DefiLlama's complete UTC daily data, it was around $7.49 million on October 15th, dropped to about $900000 on October 17th, and rebounded to about $2.31 million on October 18th. The rebound on October 18th was about 158% compared to the 17th, but still about 69% lower than the 15th These expenses include settlement and clearing costs, as well as eligible LP profit distributions, and are not losses or net profits for all traders. The rebound in fees and the launch of PAPER contracts occurred around the same time, and it can be hypothesized that with tradable prices, some participants are more willing to recalculate the returns on mining and hedging The launch of the contract represents a new stage for Papertrade The question is, how much present value of USDC distribution can a native PAPER that is continuously pledged receive under different operating scales, durations, repayment crises, and future issuance assumptions? How should the valuation space of PAPER be evaluated? PAPER Hyperliquid Papertrade