AB Kuai.Dong|Oct 15, 2026 04:29
A few days ago, Musk wrote a little essay about China's memory industry, which ended up tanking semiconductor stocks. Today, he’s back with a new take.
Logically, AI development requires a ton of memory chips, but Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—these three major memory manufacturers—have almost entirely shifted their production capacity to high-end products. This has made regular memory chips scarce and ridiculously expensive, with prices skyrocketing.
Meanwhile, China’s CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) is going all out on expansion. They’re building factories at lightning speed, catching up on technology, and are expected to churn out a massive amount of memory by around 2028.
Now, some Korean analysts are warning that once all this new capacity comes online, by 2029, there might suddenly be an oversupply of memory chips, and prices could collapse.
Currently, Korea is raking in huge profits from memory chips, but they only have a 2-3 year window. If they don’t quickly diversify into other industries, they’ll be in for a tough time when the cycle flips.
And then Musk chimed in, directly quoting: 'China will produce a lot of memory by 2028.' Basically implying that the oversupply everyone’s worried about? Yeah, that’s mostly going to be China’s doing.
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