The US strategy of high interest rates, high oil prices, and high US dollar index will definitely explode 1-2 super economies, leading to a medium-sized economic crisis. The US will act as the savior and start to rescue the market. The world will release water together, the crisis will be resolved, global liquidity will flood, and core assets will begin a new round of skyrocketing! This script has been played many times in history, and every few years, a big play is played to make a smokeless financial harvest. This time, there is a high probability that the lamb to be slaughtered will be slaughtered ， It may be France, the second largest economy in Europe! Recently, a strange data shows that the yield on 10-year French government bonds is approaching 5% at its highest, while stocks have fallen sharply (such as...) In France, there have also been continuous protests due to welfare cuts! I feel like France, the second ranked big brother in the Eurozone this time, may really step on the bandwagon! It is unimaginable that the credit pricing of the second largest economy in Europe now is even worse than that of Greece and Italy, which were ridiculed back then! Now the yield of 10-year French treasury bond bonds has soared all the way, and the borrowing cost has directly blown the record since 2002. No one dares to lend money to France anymore because its current situation is simply a "debt cycle". How did France gradually get to where it is today? To put it simply, there are three main forces pushing it towards a dead end: Firstly, getting used to the good times, spending money without restraint, and completely losing control of debt In the past few years, with low global interest rates and cheap borrowing, the French government spent money recklessly. Now then? The 'good days' of low interest rates are over. France's debt has almost caught up with its annual GDP (nearly 120%), and in the next few years, trillions of dollars in old debt will be due. This is awkward. In the past, interest rates were low and there was no pressure to borrow new and repay old debts; With interest rates so high now, borrowing new debts to repay old ones, just the annual interest payments can wipe out the budget, even higher than defense spending! This is the same as a person stacking credit cards, and in the end, they can't even afford the interest. Secondly, the combination of inflation and interest rate hikes has directly dealt a heavy blow to the French economy. In recent years, Europe has been plagued by geopolitical conflicts and energy prices have skyrocketed. Countries like France, which are highly dependent on foreign energy, have seen their manufacturing costs skyrocket. If inflation cannot be suppressed, the European Central Bank can only grit its teeth and continuously raise interest rates. This creates a vicious cycle: the higher the inflation, the more the central bank needs to raise interest rates; When the central bank raises interest rates, the borrowing costs for the French government and businesses become more expensive; The more expensive it is to borrow money, the more people feel that France will default, and the more crazy they are to sell French treasury bond; The more people throw away, the higher the cost of borrowing money... This snowball is rolling and can't stop at all. Thirdly, the most loyal "big spender" Japan has started to run away with his pants up. Previously, Japan was one of the largest buyers of French bonds because domestic interest rates were almost zero, and Japanese funds liked to go to France for arbitrage. But now Japan has also started to raise interest rates domestically. After deducting the cost of currency hedging, the meager price difference earned from buying French bonds is not worth taking risks at all. So, large Japanese funds began to clear their positions and sell off French bonds, even the most loyal investors stopped playing, and French bonds completely lost their most important foundation. These three forces twisted into one rope, directly forcing France into a dilemma: If fiscal spending is not cut, the debt snowball will continue to roll and eventually collapse; If we force ourselves to cut welfare and expenses, the economy will immediately decline, and ordinary people will take to the streets every minute to protest and strike. During the 2010 European debt crisis, Greece was hit by a thunderbolt, and at least Germany and the entire Europe pulled in, as Greece was small in size and could be saved. But if this is the complete explosion of the two manipulation countries in the eurozone, who in Europe can save it? This is not an ordinary debt crisis, it is going to directly overturn the foundation of the entire euro! Let's wait and see. Recently, I read the book "Debt Crisis" by Dalio, the owner of Bridgewater. The ideas and samples in it are basically the same as the current economic situation. The strategy of the United States to self harm by 800 and kill the enemy by 1000 will probably have results soon. Prepare ammunition and take advantage at any time! This article is sponsored by @ binancezh, titled 'Binance Buying US Stocks: Global Assets, Zero Second Time Difference, One Click Delivery'!