July 25th Bitcoin Market Subject Behavior Data Tracking Summary 1. ETF institution: net outflow for two consecutive days after 7 consecutive days of inflows Accumulated net inflow: From July 14th to 22nd, there were 7 consecutive days of net inflow, totaling nearly 1 billion US dollars; Net outflow in the past two days: 2.25+2.4=465 million US dollars; BlackRock's IBIT net outflow was 202.5 million, interrupting the continuous inflow trend. Dominator: BlackRock IBIT holds a dominant position, with ETFs holding approximately $48.86 billion, accounting for 3.70% of the total BTC supply on the internet, while the remaining 12 funds together only account for 2.38%. Key background: This rebound is driven by expectations of the CLARITY Act (with the strongest inflow on July 20-21), and the inflow immediately weakened after the expected cooling of the Act, indicating that the recent buying drivers mainly come from short-term policy expectations rather than fundamental improvements in long-term allocation demand. The current 30 day ETF fund momentum is a net outflow of approximately $4.73 billion, and institutional buying has not yet recovered to a level sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. 2. Giant Whale (1000-10000 BTC): Continuously increasing BTC holdings Over the past 60 days, there has been a net increase in holdings of approximately 66700 BTC, valued at approximately $4.3 billion. Behavioral characteristics: The BTC price remained almost unchanged during the period of increasing holdings (64.5-64.7K sideways), indicating that the giant whale was quietly attracting funds at the price level, rather than chasing after the rise. 3. Medium sized holders (100-1000 BTC): Fully reverse operation During the same period, the net reduction in holdings was about 77800 BTC, and the selling volume exceeded the increase in holdings by about 11100 BTC by the giant whale. Part of the supply may be transferred to smaller holders or flow into the exchange. This is a typical chip turnover, with the buyer being a giant whale and the seller being a medium-sized holder. The two forces have formed a complete opposing position in the past two months. So, BTC prices fluctuate up and down, it's really frustrating. 4. Long term holders (LTH): Holding historical highs The LTH supply reached 166400 BTC, accounting for 83% of the total circulating supply, setting a new historical high. Recent key changes: Around July 14-15, some LTHs experienced a "surrender style selling" during the rebound, while new long-term holders (Strategy and ETF buyers) took over the chips released by the old whales. Long term trend: LTH has increased by over 23000 BTC in 2026, marking a structural shift over the past 8 months. There is differentiation within LTH, so it cannot be generalized. Two forces simultaneously underwent a turnover within the LTH group, resulting in a record high total volume. This means that new buyers are firmly holding on, but early whales are reducing their holdings at high levels. 5. Short term holders (STH): still selling at a loss The cost base of STH is about 68800 US dollars, and it is still selling at a loss of about 4% near 65K. Latest case: On July 24th, a trader closed a 40 fold long BTC position of approximately $38.67 million, resulting in a loss of approximately $368000. 6. Miners: hoard instead of sell Miners hold approximately 1.1938 million BTC, accounting for over 5% of the total supply and reaching a high since early May. The outflow of miners is at a historical low and is accumulating rather than selling. Exception: Bitdeer, a listed mining company, currently maintains zero holdings (producing 274.6 coins this week, all sold), and some mining companies are still selling coins due to operating cost pressures. 7. Retail investors: overall weak The overall behavior of retail investors (<100 BTC) is weak, and the Fear Greed Index shows that their emotions are still in the panic zone. CryptoQuant stablecoin data shows that the scale of stablecoin inflows into exchanges has dropped to the lowest level since 2025, and retail investors have insufficient willingness to buy. The summary of market subject behavior data is as follows: (1) Buyers: Whale (66700 BTC net increase in holdings), long-term holders (total amount reaching a historical high), ETF institutions (net outflow after nearly 1 billion inflows); (2) Selling parties: Medium sized holders (net reduction of 77800 BTC), some LTH old whales (distributed during the rebound), short-term holders (exiting at a loss); (3) Divergence has formed a volatile pattern: the two forces have basically offset each other (Giant Whale increased its holdings by 66700 vs Medium Sell 77800), resulting in a sideways price range of 64-65K. My core judgment: BTC chips are changing hands, and the volatile market continues. The direction of the next stage depends on which force will dry up first. If the giant whale continues to attract funds and the selling of medium-sized holders slows down, the tightening of the supply side may drive up prices. On the contrary, if the outflow of ETFs expands, the market may continue to be under pressure. The bear market is still in its final stages, and the downward dip is still ongoing. There is a serious divergence between long and short positions, and the final decline is inevitable.