Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|Jul 10, 2026 06:41
Supplementing today's news and options: Gamma structure fiercely competes in key positions S&P 500: Short term wedge-shaped consolidation, first hitting 7800 in July and August, then rebounding at 7000-7200 in September and October, with a year-end target of 8000-8200 The S&P 500 rose 0.81% on the same day, closing at 7543.55 points, and is currently in a wedge-shaped consolidation pattern, maintaining above the 10 day, 20 day, and 50 day moving averages. In the short term, it oscillated in the range of 7500 to 7550 points, and a large amount of gamma exposure (GEX) and net put pressure on options accumulated around 7550, which suppressed the afternoon rally in this area. If this wedge really breaks through upwards, my judgment is that there is a high probability that it will first surge to around 77007800 in July and August, and then enter the seasonal weak window of the midterm elections in September and October. It may fall back into the range of 7000 to 7200, and the year-end target is set at 8000 to 8200. This judgment can also be confirmed in the option flow, where there was a significant positive cumulative net inflow of over $100 million at the exercise price of 8000 points, far exceeding the put hedging position around 7000 points. This indicates that there are already funds betting in advance on hitting 8000 points or more at the end of the year. The idea for these months is to go long on dips and focus on fundamentals. At the S&P structural level: Hammer Line+Health Breadth, 7600 is the next key resistance A very beautiful bullish hammer line has been pulled out in front of the market, and the number of rising and falling companies (breadth indicator) is still healthy, indicating that the structural level of the market has not truly collapsed. Next week, we need to focus on the strong resistance band between 7550 and 7600. Once we break through 7600, the market is likely to trigger an accelerated rise driven by positive gamma, with 7700 and 7800 visible above. Semiconductor sector: Net inflow of $5.4 billion per day, strong FOMO sentiment A few days ago, semiconductor and hardware stocks experienced a sharp correction, and short-term funds quickly gathered at the moving average and demand support levels. SOXX (semiconductor ETF) saw a net inflow of up to $5.4 billion in funds in a single day. For an already mature industry ETF, it is quite rare to see inflows of this magnitude in a single day, indicating that the market still has an extremely fanatical low suction demand for this track. With the catalyst of SK Hynix's upcoming listing on NASDAQ, topics such as global semiconductor and industrial chain linkage have become the absolute focus of Wall Street at present. QQ's Put Wall: Successfully defended the 700 point put option wall QQ has accumulated over $100 million in nominal open interest contracts near the exercise price of 700 points, forming a strong put option wall and a critical negative gamma watershed. Once it really falls below, it will force market makers to engage in self hedging frenzy selling in the spot market, triggering a waterfall like decline. The good news is that this position has been successfully defended and there has been a technical rebound. The current trend of the Nasdaq is a high-level wide range oscillation, as the RSI indicator surged to extreme overbought levels. The market is now using time (i.e. high-level sideways, time for space) to digest this overbought signal, which has led to a slower pace of technology stocks in recent times. Meanwhile, previously lagging sectors such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are slowly rebounding, which is a typical sector rotation to digest overbought. Micron's Island Reversal (Figure 1) At the individual stock level, Micron is worth mentioning separately. After experiencing a downward jump a few days ago, it quickly pulled up and then jumped up again, forming a very standard island shaped reversal pattern on the technical chart, and accurately stepped on the EMA 50. Tomorrow it seems that there is a chance to fill the gap of 950 and continue to rise. If it falls below the red trend line and the gap happens to be at 1150, there is a probability that it will be filled. If the market reaches a new high, it will be difficult for storage to fall. Have you come to the conclusion about MU's callback now? I don't think so. There may be another second dip, a b c wave callback, and I don't think it will be lower than 800, at most up to the gap of 780. SNDK (Figure 2) has already fallen below the retracement level, briefly retraced like Micron, then continued to rise, encountered the downtrend line again and was rejected, and it is uncertain whether it will form a double bottom or reach the next long stop near 1275. 1500 and 1280 are both supports. The decline on Tuesday was a false drop below June 5th from 1500 to 1480, breaking the long stop loss and then recovering. The next dip is estimated to reach a maximum of 1250 and 1260. Of course, it doesn't necessarily follow the path I drew. The middle trend will be more complex, but it basically means falling below the red downtrend line and then falling again.
+5
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads