[Critini Analyst: Samsung and SK Hynix Reassessing Timing for Hybrid Bonding Adoption in HBM, Potential Delay in Technology Transition] BlockBeats News, July 6 — Critini Research analyst Jukan pointed out that Samsung and SK Hynix are reevaluating the timing for adopting hybrid bonding in HBM, potentially delaying its implementation even for HBM5. There are two core reasons: First, JEDEC is currently discussing relaxing the thickness standards for HBM5 to a maximum of approximately 1000μm (HBM3E is 720μm, HBM4 has already been relaxed to 775μm). With the loosened standards, the advantage of hybrid bonding in reducing bump-less thinning becomes less urgent. Second, there are simpler alternatives for heat dissipation. Samsung has developed the Heat Path Block, while SK Hynix has introduced iHBM (ICE HBM), both of which involve placing independent cooling components next to HBM. These solutions are planned for implementation starting with HBM5, offering lower technical complexity and more reliable commercialization. Additionally, major customers like NVIDIA currently do not have urgent demand for high-stacked products exceeding 16 layers. Products with 12 layers may remain the mainstream in the HBM4E phase. However, the research and development of hybrid bonding has not stalled. Currently, the I/O count for HBM4 has doubled to 2048, and the existing TC thermal compression bonding process is nearing its limit. If the I/O count further doubles to 4096 in the future HBM5E phase, lateral bump diffusion will make TC bonding unsustainable, necessitating the use of copper direct bonding in hybrid bonding to achieve higher-density connections. Jukan predicts that in the short term, due to simpler solutions for thickness and heat dissipation, hybrid bonding will not see large-scale deployment. However, in the medium to long term, as I/O density explodes again, hybrid bonding will remain an inevitable direction. This will directly impact market expectations for Besi, the core supplier of hybrid bonding equipment. The delay in technology transition means the timeline for scaling up related equipment orders needs to be reassessed. [Original Link]