qinbafrank
qinbafrank|7月 05, 2026 07:38
The market tends to give a significant valuation premium to companies with a monopolistic dominance in their field. Back in late 2024 to 2025, why did $PLTR manage to soar over tenfold despite carrying a PE ratio in the hundreds? The key reason was that in the defense and military AI sector at the time, it wasn’t just the leader—it was the only player (a true monopoly). Then in the first half of 2026, why did its stock price get cut in half from its peak? On one hand, the market needed to digest the valuation premium. On the other hand, the large model vendors it previously partnered with started signing direct agreements with the Pentagon, showing the market that $PLTR was no longer “the only one” in the defense and military AI space. Naturally, the valuation premium had to come down. Then OpenAI and Anthropic began deeply integrating into the “FDE model,” directly targeting commercial enterprise clients for deployment, further suppressing this valuation premium. Of course, this doesn’t mean $PLTR has no value anymore. As AI continues to penetrate the B2B space, the FDE model will become increasingly necessary—it’s just that competition will intensify. The market still needs $PLTR to scale up its revenue and profit to the next level. Once the valuation digestion is complete, there will be new opportunities again. Speaking of which, let’s talk about Circle. Why does Circle’s stock price fluctuate so much? The core issue is what was discussed here a few days ago: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2073012138390786398?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A. Circle hasn’t yet established a sufficiently strong dominant position in the regulated stablecoin sector. Although it has reached a certain scale, the low entry barriers mean new competitors keep popping up, and the market continues to worry from time to time. Plus, the crypto market hasn’t emerged from its downturn yet, making it even harder to form a trending rally. Saw Karp blasting large model vendors these past couple of days, which reminded me of a friend asking about $PLTR before—we had a chat about it back then.
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