This recent drop in the old dividend stocks is essentially an indiscriminate liquidity shock—basically, if it’s not related to AI, it’s taken a hit. Here’s a simple analysis framework: Long-term annualized return of dividend stocks = Initial dividend yield + ROE × (1 - Payout ratio) The premise of this formula is that ROE and payout ratio remain stable. In other words, if you assume that even in the worst-case scenario, a company can still give you decent returns, then it’s worth considering. Take liquor stocks as an example. Right now, Moutai’s initial dividend yield is about 4%, payout ratio is 80%, and ROE is around 34%. If we assume ROE drops to 30% in the future, the annualized return would be roughly 10%. Can you accept that number? After an industry becomes saturated, internal differentiation will be very severe. If you pick the wrong stock, you might lose everything, even your shirt. Some companies will be eliminated, while others might find a new growth curve—but the path is unclear, so tracking is a must.