Murphy
Murphy|Jun 11, 2026 01:38
(Update) As of June 10, LTH net holdings have temporarily returned to positive! A net increase of 8,173 coins on the 7th. This doesn’t mean LTHs have stopped selling, but rather that the total distribution is smaller than the accumulation from LTH buying + STH conversions. It’s like those math problems we did in elementary school: when outflow is less than inflow, the water level rises. In fact, LTH net holdings have been gradually recovering since June 4. This period coincided with a sharp drop in the U.S. stock market. At the same time, factors like inflation rebound, expected rate hikes, and the U.S.-Iran conflict have been influencing market sentiment and risk appetite. Yet, $BTC has managed to stay above 60k. This shows that $BTC can still maintain a certain level of independence at times. Especially during structural resets (when the profit-loss circulation ratio hits 50%), the supply-demand relationship has a greater impact on price than sentiment and liquidity. Although we don’t know if LTHs will switch back to “distribution mode” later, one thing is certain: as long as LTH net holdings continue to grow, $BTC’s price can remain stable. And its correlation with the U.S. stock market? It’s weakening, not strengthening.
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