上海米哥(蓝V回关)
上海米哥(蓝V回关)|6月 05, 2026 15:35
BTC following historical patterns of similar trends: After a drop, Bitcoin tends to oscillate near the secondary low point, repeatedly faking support and luring buyers, creating the illusion of 'the low point won’t break, a rebound is coming.' This tricks retail investors into going long at the low point and setting stop-losses just below the previous low. Then, the big players dump heavily, breaking the key low point and triggering stop-loss hunts for longs. We’re currently in the late stage of the 5-wave downtrend, but the full downward structure hasn’t been completed yet. The true bottom will require an extreme phase of market depression: funds continuously flowing into assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and silver; retail investors exiting en masse; trading volume shrinking drastically; market-wide activity cooling off; and negative news flooding everywhere. Only when retail investors panic-sell and leave, and short-term gamblers exit in large numbers, will big players have the ideal environment to accumulate at low levels. Right now, the conditions for a bottom haven’t been met. There hasn’t been extreme panic selling or a significant shift to negative funding rates, which are signals of a bottom. There’s still some room for further downside before we hit the true bottom. Yesterday, a follower asked me: 'Is it time to buy the dip?' My answer remains: 'Not until the end of the year—either late December or Q1 2027.' Bear markets are long and drawn-out~ Even if we drop to $45,000, it might just be the beginning of the bottoming phase. A major reversal will require multiple large-scale fake breakdowns and weekly price divergence to truly form a bottom.
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