xiyu|May 25, 2026 03:14
This week on BTC: Accumulation phase, but we're already at the doorstep of redistribution.
BTC is still consolidating around 77K.
The real issue is that three key factors are simultaneously weakening:
G1 Liquidity deterioration: DXY strengthening, 10Y Treasury yields rising, and the Fed's assets shrinking again.
G2 Funding pipeline blockage: BTC spot ETF has seen six consecutive weeks of outflows, with about $1 billion leaving in a single week.
G4 Sentiment remains weak: Fear & Greed Index at 30, the market is still in the Fear zone.
The only thing holding up is G3:
MVRV is around 1.9, valuation has cooled;
BTC balances on exchanges remain at low levels;
But the price is hovering near miners' cost lines, with limited buffer left.
So the judgment for this week is simple:
No adding positions, no liquidating positions.
Keep the old base positions untouched, and wait for new funds until the 6/17 FOMC.
If BTC climbs back above 80K, ETFs resume inflows, and G4 sentiment improves, then this is still the accumulation phase.
If 77K is effectively broken, ETFs continue outflows, and DXY breaks 120, then this is no longer accumulation.
That would mark the start of redistribution.
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