Let's talk about my macro, cyclical, and pricing perspectives A friend reminded me not to analyze the micro level without considering the macro environment. I fully agree with this! In this cycle, anyone who is not a novice should know the close relationship between encryption and macro. And what I am doing is not just looking at the chain without looking at the macro, but first looking at the structural signals given by the chain, and then doing macro emotional verification. To elaborate, it should be like this: We all know that market trading is not about events, but about expectations. So, there is one transmission path among them: Macro shaping expectations → Expectations influence emotions → Emotions drive behavior → Behavior changes supply and demand → Supply and demand determine prices (which can also have a reverse effect on each other) We analyze macroeconomic and monetary policies in the hope of detecting expectations in advance, but often market interpretations are complex and multi-threaded. It is difficult for ordinary investors to make accurate predictions in advance, even in macro trading. Therefore, we study and attempt to observe changes in participants' emotions and behaviors through on chain data, and then reverse validate the expectations generated by macro events; Thereby improving the probability judgment of transactions. Since we are discussing the guidance of macro trading, let's take a look at the potential macro risks and their impact on the risk market in the latter half of the last bear market. From September 2022 to March 2023: 1. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates in a continuous 75bp pace, with a cumulative increase of 175bp within six months, directly draining the liquidity of risky assets. 2. The consequences of interest rate hikes are concentrated and exposed. Previously, there were FTX thunderstorms, followed by the collapse of crypto friendly banks such as Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate. 3. At the beginning of 2023, the core CPI remained above 5.5%, leaving no room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. 4. The Russia Ukraine war has impacted the energy and food supply chains, and Europe is facing a natural gas crisis. If time could shuttle you back to this period, from a macro perspective alone, would you think this is a bear code? Never will! So at that time, the vast majority of retail investors saw a new low and even expected BTC to drop to $8000. However, in hindsight, this is precisely the new stage of "gradually stepping out of the deep bear" and switching to the "bear/bull transition". Risk environment in May 2026: 1. Geopolitical conflicts directly impact oil prices, causing inflation, which had previously fallen to 2.4%, to turn upward. 2. Inflation has resurged, with a comprehensive rebound in housing and food inflation. The diffusion of inflation is more troublesome than a simple energy shock. 3. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma, with four officials opposing the FOMC decision for the first time at the April meeting to maintain interest rates; The market has begun to price in a non-linear path of "first decreasing and then increasing". 4. The pressure on the Japanese yen to raise interest rates has increased, and there is a risk of a pullback in the US stock high+AI foam. Each one here needs to be elaborated in detail, and a long article can be written. So, it is also a macro uncertainty factor that everyone can see and is concerned about at present. That's why we're still in a bear market, isn't it a bull market. Each bear market has a different historical background and impact, and since it is a bear market, there must be a reason. But conversely, if inflation, geopolitical, fiscal, and monetary issues are all resolved and clarified, will BTC still be at its current price? From September 2022 to March 2023, under the macro background at that time, a bear bottom appeared right under our noses. How can we be 100% certain that it's not right now? You can be pessimistic or bearish, but please tell me, are you bearish for 2 weeks, 2 months, or 2 years? If it's 2 years, then you should go buy US bonds now, the cryptocurrency market is not suitable for you. Because your risk appetite is extremely low, you should choose investment products that guarantee capital and returns. And I watch more, focusing on the nodes of 'long-term layout'. I don't think the price of BTC will be lower than it is now in 2 years. So this is not contradictory, just different levels (I have analyzed the short-term bearish view using RMMPC, exchange CVD, USDC exchange rate, and Coinbase premium index). Although there are many negative expectations at present, we cannot turn a blind eye to the positive side, right? For example, ETFs experienced a large net inflow from April to early May, MSTR continued to increase holdings, options market institutions were laying out (net put below), and long-term holders' net holdings reached a historic high ..... Are these funds that choose to enter at around 70000 yuan unable to understand the potential risks in the current macro environment? Is the research ability of professional structure weaker than that of individual investors? I don't think so, it's just that institutions have essential differences from retail investors in terms of funding, risk control, information channels, and tool diversification, so their perspectives and levels of consideration are also different.