小龙先生|5月 07, 2026 11:21
I still firmly stick to the judgment I've held over the past few months:
Wave 4 is a dead cat bounce within the bear trend, not a reversal. Wave 5 might be delayed, but it won't be absent.
For the first time in nearly 3 months, the funding rate has flipped from negative to positive: shorts have basically exited, longs are now paying to hold positions, and the 'short squeeze fuel' for the rally is exhausted!
My take is straightforward: 82k-85k is the absolute peak of this rebound. Yes, the daily chart shows a breakout with volume, but the 4-hour overbought condition + volume-price divergence indicates a short-term pullback is needed. The big picture remains unchanged—Wave 4's rebound is nearing its end.
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