Li Ka shing's Canadian oil layout, with several fluctuations in oil prices and rollercoaster experiences in stock prices, has once again become a big winner with the outbreak of the Iran situation. Recently, I have been observing the trends of major oil companies in the Iran situation, and I have also seen a clever layout by Li Ka shing forty years ago. Many people think that Li Ka shing's main businesses are real estate, ports, and retail. In fact, 40 years ago, he quietly played a super big game in Canada - from Husky Energy to Cenovus, and then to the low point of MEG Energy in 2025, silently controlling a huge energy empire. The classic low point bargain in 1986: At that time, the aftermath of two oil crises and Saudi Arabia's increased production caused international oil prices to plummet to less than $10 per barrel. Canadian Husky Energy (specializing in heavy oil and oil sands) was heavily indebted and struggling, and the market was on the run. Li Ka shing acquired a 52% controlling stake in the Huang+family company for only HKD 3.2 billion (later increased to 95% in 1991). At that time, everyone said he was a 'jack of the market', with high oil sands extraction costs, difficult transportation, and high environmental pressure, making him look like a hot potato. What about the results? From the late 1990s to 2008, oil prices skyrocketed from over $20 to $140, and Husky turned losses into profits and went public for expansion. The cash recovered by the Li family through dividends and profits far exceeded the principal. The 2008 financial crisis followed by the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, causing oil prices to plummet again and again. Husky's stock price plummeted by 70-80%, and the Li family's books evaporated by tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars. The outside world began to criticize the "sunset industry" again. The 2020 pandemic was even more severe, with Brent trading at $19.9/barrel and Husky continuously losing money. Li Ka shing remained calm and pushed for Husky and Cenovus to merge equally. The new company produces 750000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and his family holds about 29% of the shares, still the single largest shareholder and continuing to control the board of directors. The core logic of these ups and downs is still the consistent rotation of commodity cycles: oil prices are greatly disturbed by geopolitical, supply, and demand information, with severe short-term fluctuations. However, as long as the medium - and long-term demand (industry+consumption)+supply constraints are met, the operating leverage of oil companies can amplify profits. Husky/Genovus did not rely on futures trading, but on technological iteration (SAGD steam assisted mining reduced the cost of oil sands to around $40), coupled with Canada's political stability and distance from Middle Eastern hotspots, asset security is fully enhanced. The stock price follows the roller coaster of oil prices, but Li Ka shing focuses on the long term and locks in production capacity and cash flow through mergers and acquisitions. The real stroke of genius is in 2025. The oil price has fallen back to around $60, and the market is calling for an "energy sunset". Investors are selling assets, and the Li Ka shing family has fully acquired MEG Energy, a UK listed company, through Cenovus for HKD 44.3 billion (approximately CAD 7.9 billion) - which is also the core oil sands block in Alberta and downstream refining. The synergistic effect directly adds 110000 barrels per day of low-cost production capacity. Just a few months after the acquisition was completed, the situation in Iran suddenly escalated in early 2026 (with restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure), and Brent oil prices soared to $112+within two weeks. Goldman Sachs and other institutions directly raised the central price range to $95-115. Now look: Cenovus is expected to produce 945000 to 985000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, just one step away from reaching one million barrels. The total shareholding of the Li family (CK Hutchison about 17%+Li personally about 12%) is stable in control. Calculated conservatively at $100 per barrel, the daily pre tax cash flow is nearly $100 million, and the annualized net operating inflow is easily over $30 billion. Even more ruthless is that all core production capacity is located in Canada, far from conflict zones, and crude oil can be stably exported to Asia (including the Chinese market). During the same period, Cenovus' stock price skyrocketed from a low of around $10 last year to over $25, with a market value approaching $50 billion, and the Li family's holdings directly worth over HKD 100 billion. The essence of this layout is not to bet on a single oil price rebound, but to invest in pure cyclical trends: Every time global capital panics and escapes, and oil prices are hit to floor prices, he goes against the trend and buys at the bottom; With the rise of oil prices, cash flow has exploded. The rise and fall of oil prices have led to several rollercoaster rides in stock prices, but he has been present at every low point. This year, with the outbreak of the Strait of Hormuz crisis in Iran, oil prices skyrocketed to over $110, and his family's daily production approached one million barrels, instantly becoming the most stable winner in the global energy game. This is a typical approach of "slow simmering capital"+cycle insight: 1) Low point heavy position: Sell Husky in 1986, promote Husky and Cenovus in 20 years, acquire MEG in 2025, and sell every time the market is most panicked and the valuation is lowest; 2) Technology+Scale: Oil sands have gone from high cost to low cost, and mergers and acquisitions have increased Nissan from several hundred thousand barrels per day to nearly one million barrels per day, fully leveraging the effect; 3) Holding high-quality assets and guarding the base area, the geopolitical chaos is blowing strong winds: Canadian assets are far away from the Middle East, and when Hormuz is in chaos, others will cut off supply, and he will sell at a stable and high price; To put it simply, the 40 years of the Li Ka shing family's oil industry have validated the essence of cyclical investment: they don't care about the short-term fluctuations of oil prices or the rollercoaster ride of stock prices, but rather collect chips in advance during low periods, and wait for demand recovery and geopolitical resonance to sit on the shore and watch others panic. The wave in Iran in 2026 is just another verification. In the cyclical rotation, the ones who truly make big money are always the ones who dare to bet in the trough, can control risks (without leverage, control cash flow), and patiently wait for the explosion.