The market has entered a true moment of liquidation TLDR 1. The market will end with bursting all leveraged long positions 2. Precious metal funds in the US stock market are all fleeing 3. The demand for institutional hedging is extremely high, and insurance with a sharp left bias and severe decline has become extremely expensive 4. All publicly available long positions will be challenged 5. The popular tracks in the market are only the prediction market and RWA 6. MSTR faces fundamental challenges, while other DAT approaches bankruptcy 7. True hedging still focuses on hedging the original exposure 8. The bottom range is beginning to form, and cyclical traders can lay out their positions (the cost of Mstr $66000 is currently around $58000-60000 for a 200T mining machine) —————— 1. The market will end with bursting all leveraged long positions All the declines after 17 years ended with the bursting of all leveraged bulls. This is related to liquidity. As market traders (who provide liquidity to the market), when they find that there is too much selling pressure in the market, they will also dilute their market making and place defensive orders. That's why declines often end with strong liquidation of OI. The current OI has not been fully cleared, and the bottom range may have begun to form. 2. Funds for precious metals in the US stock market are all fleeing This is not uncommon. Under the excessive foam of the US stock market, when the geography is uncertain and the Fed chairman changes. Institutions will also take the lead in hedging/taking profits on their own risk exposures. Meanwhile, the current profits of the US stock market are already enormous. Precious metals also correspond to a surge in safe haven demand, and in the doubling of silver prices, the silver market has experienced abnormal development. This is directly related to the institution's previous request to increase the Premium (margin) ratio for silver, and the institution has taken some preventive measures against the rapid growth. (Increasing Premium will also directly lead to a large amount of liquidation in the silver futures market, thereby reducing risk) Currently, the Bitcoin options Skew for the following week are heavily left skewed The next day at 15 delta or even -40, the institution was in a real defensive dilemma. When the market enters a panic, insurance against market downturns becomes very expensive. Institutions have judged that the market has entered a panic bear market and expressed panic on non trading weekends. In the case of negative skew and negative gex, market makers often experience short gamma; When the market goes down, their delta becomes more negative and they need to sell more underlying assets to maintain delta neutrality, which directly amplifies the decline and accelerates the trend. Especially when the market approaches Gamma Wall, market makers will increase selling pressure to avoid exercise. If GEX is positive, they will buy the decline to hedge and stabilize the market. Negative Skew often pushes towards negative GEX, thereby increasing downside risk. The GEX of top technology stocks is positive, and the overall fundamentals are supported, so the performance of technology stocks is significantly better than that of the cryptocurrency market. (NASDAQ fell 10%, while BTC fell 30%) 4. When negative conditions are clear, the market will look for positions to break through and obtain liquidity to profit, which is related to the lack of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. When the market is bearish, buying orders will be greatly compressed. This leads to the market becoming a fragile market that is easy for bears to target. In this context, all long positions exposed in the market will become targets for liquidity acquisition. The movement of the K-line will be related to the rapid acquisition of liquidity. Two key positions can be mentioned here The cost of Mstr is approximately $63000 The cost of a 200T mining machine at 0.06 USD is approximately 58000-60000 USD From the current financing situation in the cryptocurrency market, it can be seen that AI prediction market RWA is still one of the main directions for VC to seek opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, which may also be where retail investors can obtain Alpha returns As for previous projects, such as the second layer public chain gamefi socialfi The test is their overall cash flow, market making, and marketing professionalism This will be a great challenge 6. MSTR faces fundamental challenges, DAT has almost gone bankrupt NAV typically refers to the market value of a company's Bitcoin holdings and is commonly used to evaluate the pricing of a Strategy relative to its BTC assets. The simple formula is: Bitcoin NAV=Bitcoin holdings x current Bitcoin price At present, the NAV of MSTR is 713502BTC, and the comprehensive cost is 66044 USD. Therefore, the Bitcoin NAV ≈ 713502 × 66044 ≈ 4.71 billion USD. MNAV measures the multiple of a Strategy's enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin NAV and is commonly used to determine whether a stock is trading at a premium (mNAV>1 indicates a premium). The formula is: MNAV=Enterprise Value (EV)/Bitcoin NAV The calculation of enterprise value (EV): EV=total market value (including all common stocks)+total debt - cash and cash equivalents. Sometimes adjusted to include preferred stocks or convertible bonds to reflect the complex capital structure of Strategy. Total market value=Stock price × Number of outstanding shares=106.99 × 28934000 ≈ 30960446600 (approximately $309.6 million) EV=total market value+total debt - cash and equivalents=3.096 billion+822 million -0.054 billion ≈ 3.9126 billion MNAV=39.126/47.04 ≈ 0.832 (indicating a discount of approximately 17%); MNAV<1 means that the stock is trading at a discount relative to BTC assets, which may be affected by market sentiment and BTC decline At the same time, the premium arbitrage of MSTR will also disappear, which means that cars have become lighter. From the perspective of the recent collapse of precious metals, the US stock market, and the cryptocurrency market, the real hedge is still the exposure hedge held by oneself rather than multiple assets as the main hedge method. This inevitably raises concerns, as it seems that everyone is intentionally withdrawing cash to cope with potential liquidity run risks in the future. To put it simply, people believe that the likelihood of a market crisis increases, and when liquidity runs out, cash is king. 8. The bottom range is beginning to form, and cyclical traders can lay out their positions (the cost of Mstr $66000 is currently around $58000-60000 for a 200T mining machine) Based on the cost calculation of 0.06U for a 200T machine, the shutdown cost of the mining machine will occur between 58000-60000, which is the final position for turnover and a key focus for cycle traders. MSTR, as a BTC holder that will not be liquidated and only faces fundraising and premium risks, their costs will also become the target price in the market. If you are interested, you can write another article and talk about it separately