陈剑Jason
陈剑Jason|Jan 12, 2026 10:11
In the 2026 outlook released by the founder of Opinion, there is an interesting chart. Currently, in the three major prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi create topics that are "centralized" and require you to fill out an application form yourself. After passing the review, they are created by official staff, and the specific settlement rules of the topics are all manually designed by the official. The main problem is that if everyone is allowed to create topics, it will bring up a lot of difficult problems, such as whether the topics can attract enough participants, whether the results can be verified, etc. However, Opinion can open up the creation of topics. How does it solve these problems? The following picture explains it very clearly. During this process, @ opionlabsxyz integrated the AI+POS mechanism and trained a corresponding AI model. After you input the created topic, the AI will intelligently determine whether the topic can be verified and automatically design verification rules for you, as shown in the following figure. I started two topics, namely whether the United States can obtain ownership of Greenland and whether Zhang San can repay me the 30000 yuan borrowed from me this month. The AI considers the first topic valid and designated Reuters' report as the source of result verification. It also rigorously provides various possible situations. At that time, the AI will verify the judgment result based on this rule. For the second topic, AI said it can also do it, but the rule judgment cannot be automatically completed by AI because AI cannot monitor whether Zhang San's bank card has repaid me, so I need to submit the verification rules myself. In addition, it also includes the POS staking and confiscation mechanism. In order to ensure the effectiveness of posting topics, users also need to pledge funds. If there is malicious behavior such as intentional manipulation, they will be confiscated. However, if the topic you post is very popular, you can receive additional dividend rewards. The most troublesome part of predicting the market is still verifying settlement. Polymarket has had several controversial topics before, or there have been cases of large players manipulating oracle machines to change their fate. As mentioned above, when creating topics, AI was already used to design verification rules. Opinion also specifically built a set of AI oracle machines, why is it called a set? Because it is a decentralized committee composed of multiple AI models for verification, as the computational and economic costs of manipulating multiple AI models simultaneously are very high. Because the creation of topics is open and validation is done automatically using AI, with almost no human intervention, Opinion can open up this entire set to third-party developer APIs. Only when topics have diversity can they brainstorm more and break through the ceiling of the prediction market. Opinion is not just a product, but an ecosystem.
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