Base Case Update - Supply, demand and price are the primary market factors, and when commodities spike, balances shift. The problem with metals is prices gone parabolic akin to now typically mark highs for decades. Bitcoin and cryptos reached high-price cures in October. Cryptos are oversupplied and prices went up too much. A low-price cure may not come until $10,000 Bitcoin, $50,000 initial 2026 support. A top potential catalyst is some normalization in stock market volatility. Bitcoin is different -- it was #1 crypto in 2009 and now there are millions. Crude oil is oversupplied, notably due to prices going up too much in 2022 and the low-price cure has been around $40 a barrel for decades. A minor 10% correction in the US stock market could accelerate pre-existing trends toward $40 WTI, $2 natural gas, $2 national average gasoline price. Like energy, the grains (corn, soybeans, wheat) are oversupplied, on the back of spikes to the 2022 highs and nadirs may be around $3.50 corn $9 per bushel beans. Most of the metals were in deficit, but prices gone parabolic should shift excesses soon. Gold and silver could see $5,000 and $50 an ounce in 2026 and set highs for decades, if history is a guide. The bottom-line for 2026 is the US stock market has to go up about 10%, as widely expected, but is way overdue for some humility. Falling cryptos and crude vs. parabolic gold in 2025 may be a warning If I keep saying the same thing may eventually be right - US T-bonds are poised to take alpha from gold in 2026 Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t88hi7kgifr1 {BI COMD} #gold #bitcoin #crudeoil #stockmarket(Mike McGlone)