From a macro perspective, this wave of big cake adjustments since October can be said that the Trump tweet on the evening of October 10 kicked off the big market adjustment in the past two months, and the big cake hit a new high on October 6 (the net inflow of big cake ether ETF in the previous week hit a historical record for a single week). In my personal opinion, there are two main reasons: firstly, the continuous macro headwinds: 1) the escalation of the game between China and the United States in October; 2) The liquidity shortage caused by the government shutdown in mid October has not yet been restored; 3) In early November, AI foam discussed the adjustment of US stocks and then transmitted to the currency market 4) The lack of economic data during the critical period of government shutdown has led to the Federal Reserve becoming increasingly hawkish; The second aspect is the four-year cycle time effect of the big pie. Although the market is now greatly influenced by macro drivers, many people should still believe in the four-year cycle. Coupled with the continuous macro headwinds, it means running ahead and continuously taking profits. 1. Let's discuss the above points in detail according to the timeline: 1) On October 10, Trump provoked the escalation of the game between China and the United States. The impact on the market was that the market was optimistic about the prospect of Sino US relations at that time after the China US dollar leader called to finalize the tiktok US business transaction on September 20. Everyone was waiting for the China US dollar leader to meet in South Korea at the end of October. Just because the market was optimistic, Trump's tweet on October 10 surprised the market (of course, the mutual sanctions between China and the United States began to escalate on October 7, but the market did not pay attention until Trump's tweet made everyone realize that the relationship between China and the United States had deteriorated). In fact, for the cryptocurrency market, the escalation of the China US game on the evening of the 10th was just a trigger. In the early morning of the 11th, due to the disconnection of USDE and technical reasons that we may not be clear about, a large number of trading pairs broke through the order book, causing the largest single day liquidation volume in the history of the cryptocurrency market. It was a very heavy and fatal blow, causing heavy losses for most retail investors, large investors, institutions, and market makers, and the aftermath continues to this day. But at that time, the macro focus was on the game between China and the United States https://((((x.com)))/qinbank/status/197734228139090060? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A ， After the 10th, the currency market actually fluctuated in the two weeks following the pace of the China US game negotiations. It was not until October 17th when China and the United States clearly agreed to meet in Malaysia, indicating that the China US game began to ease, that the currency market began a wave of rebound and continued until October 28th (the results of the China US talks on October 27th were very good). But the second macro headwinds affecting the cryptocurrency market in mid October are also brewing. 2) The negative effects of the government shutdown are beginning to manifest Have you talked about https://((((x.com)))/qinbufark/status/1973177274858597516 in early October? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A The short-term government shutdown has little impact, but the longer the shutdown, the worse. I didn't expect this to come true. We have experienced the longest government shutdown in history, resulting in two significant negative impacts: tight liquidity and loss of key economic data. The first occurrence of liquidity tension occurred on October 15th, when two regional banks' credit problems caused market concerns. The overnight guarantee interest rate between banks soared for the first time in October, and the US stock market fell slightly that day. Then on October 17th, five regional banks announced their financial reports without credit problems, which eased the situation. However, the liquidity issue has actually worsened over time On October 27th, while the market was still optimistic about the good outcome of the China US Malaysia summit, liquidity tension appeared for the second time. On the 27th, the SOFR surged again to above 4.2 and continued for several days. At the same time, the usage of SRF for regular repurchase convenience surged on October 31st. This liquidity shortage problem began to erupt on November 3rd after a weekend of fermentation. On October 28th, the SOFR skyrocketed and began to decline. On November 3rd, it began its second wave of sharp decline since October 10th, falling below the 100000 mark. The tweet on the 4th is https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/19856869073978755? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A reviewed the money shortage in 2019 and predicted the subsequent trend, believing that the US stock market will initiate a small-scale adjustment. 3) In October, due to the strong earnings season, the impact of macro headwinds on the US stock market was minimal. Instead, the earnings reports supported the US stock market to reach a new high. However, since November, the financial reports of major technology companies have been released and the market expectations are full. At the beginning of October, the big short seller Bury announced his fund position in advance and announced that he was shorting Nvidia and pltr. He believed that the AI foam had appeared and the problem was very big. Since then, the third big debate on skin care AI has been launched https://((((((((((((x. com))))))/qinbafrank/status/1988572662415990801? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 I also wrote a tweet at the time suggesting that the US stock market would initiate a small-scale adjustment in valuation, rather than a massive downward trend like a complete collapse https://((((((x.com))))))/qinbafrank/status/1986487386763886825? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， So far, the adjustment range of the Nasdaq and S&P has not reached the upper limit of the small-scale adjustment range that I have defined. But overall, the US stock market is not doing well and it is difficult for the cryptocurrency market to improve. And every downturn in the US stock market will drive a wave of funds to flee from the cryptocurrency market. In the past two to three weeks, the downturns in the cryptocurrency market have mostly occurred during US trading hours. 4) Returning to the Federal Reserve, the second negative impact of the government shutdown during the adjustment of the US stock and currency markets became apparent, which was the loss of key data for October. The most direct impact of this is that the Federal Reserve was considered a hawkish interest rate cut at the end of October meeting, and since then, many Federal Reserve governors and local Fed chairs have become increasingly hawkish towards the December rate cut. As we have been discussing before, inflation did indeed rise (although September's inflation was lower than expected, it was still higher than before). Powell was very wary of this, and the lack of key data naturally led to the Federal Reserve becoming increasingly hawkish overall. This attitude reached its peak from the day before yesterday to yesterday. Last night, I tweeted https://(((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1991691253067702606? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A believes that there is a high possibility that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in December, but the market has not fully priced this. Last night, the US stock market opened high and fell low, leading to a weakening of the cryptocurrency market. Today, the cryptocurrency market fell sharply to just over 80000 yuan. Personally, I think they are all digesting the possibility of not cutting interest rates in December. The above is what I personally believe is the macro headwind event of this major adjustment since early October. Returning to the second reason, the time effect of the four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market, many people feel that the four-year cycle is about to change, but many still believe that, especially with the continuous macro bearish trend, the four-year cycle is getting closer and closer. I believe that many people should first retreat urgently for safety. This is essentially a negative double helix effect: macro headwinds exacerbate everyone's sense of insecurity, the four-year cycle effect constantly reminds everyone to run, and then the sell first effect increases the impact and shock of macro headwinds.