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DC大于C
DC大于C|11月 14, 2025 04:24
Brother Wu's post, highly recommended reading. We might still face some turbulence in the near future, so hang in there. Let me break down the timeline: even if the government reopens, there’s still a question mark over a rate cut in December because we don’t have October’s macro data as a guide right now. Plus, it’ll take some time for fiscal liquidity to flow after reopening—at least 1-2 weeks. So, starting from November 18 at the earliest. Then, the balance sheet reduction is expected to stop in early December, which should help boost market sentiment. Next, we’ll get November’s inflation data and labor market data: - December 5: Unemployment rate - December 10: CPI data And then the interest rate meeting will be at 3 AM on December 11. If there’s going to be a rate cut in December, it’ll depend on these two data points—whether inflation comes in lower than expected. If it does, there’s still time for a rate cut. But if it’s higher than expected, then it’s hard to say. So for now, it looks like we just have to hang in there, folks. Oh, and even if there’s a new chairperson, they’ll still need to rely on macro data for guidance.
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Timeline

12月 05, 00:43Analysis of Two Reasons for U's Sharp Decline
12月 01, 00:25Trump's selection for the next Federal Reserve Chair is about to be announced
11月 29, 15:42The week of the Federal Reserve's decision, a flood of data arrives
11月 28, 14:43Bitcoin Trend Analysis
11月 28, 01:52Market expectations for a rate cut in December are as high as 84.7%.
11月 27, 04:52BTC rebounds above $90,000, future volatility ahead
11月 26, 15:14Initial jobless claims decrease indicates employment recovery.
11月 26, 12:16The crypto market is relatively weak, and there are issues with the funding chain.
11月 26, 08:39Implied volatility fluctuates at high levels, betting on a neutral to slightly bullish range.
11月 26, 02:00The probability of a rate cut in December is stuck at 80%+.

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