DC大于C |🧠SENT|Nov 14, 2025 04:24
Brother Wu's post, highly recommended reading.
We might still face some turbulence in the near future, so hang in there.
Let me break down the timeline: even if the government reopens, there’s still a question mark over a rate cut in December because we don’t have October’s macro data as a guide right now.
Plus, it’ll take some time for fiscal liquidity to flow after reopening—at least 1-2 weeks. So, starting from November 18 at the earliest.
Then, the balance sheet reduction is expected to stop in early December, which should help boost market sentiment.
Next, we’ll get November’s inflation data and labor market data:
- December 5: Unemployment rate
- December 10: CPI data
And then the interest rate meeting will be at 3 AM on December 11.
If there’s going to be a rate cut in December, it’ll depend on these two data points—whether inflation comes in lower than expected.
If it does, there’s still time for a rate cut.
But if it’s higher than expected, then it’s hard to say.
So for now, it looks like we just have to hang in there, folks.
Oh, and even if there’s a new chairperson, they’ll still need to rely on macro data for guidance.
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