
Phyrex|Jul 09, 2025 19:13
There is not much to talk about in today's work. Trump continues to release tariffs from some small countries, which is harmless to the overall situation, because the market sentiment has improved significantly after the announcement of TACO yesterday. The final tariff implementation will be on August 1. Before this, the main issues to wait for are the tariff issues of the United States, China and the European Union, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest meeting in July.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were also released in the early hours of the morning, and overall, most members are still neutral (cautious) and biased towards dovish. They believe that there is still a window for one or more interest rate cuts in 2025, either to meet the needs of inflation reduction or economic downturn, which will open the channel for interest rate cuts. Then, the full eagle and full dove are roughly evenly matched, so as long as inflation can be controlled, the probability of a rate cut in September is still quite high.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, today's turnover is lower than yesterday, and the market's active sentiment is continuously declining. This is completely out of sync with the volatile upward price. A year ago, I would not have thought of this situation. On one hand, the price is rising, and on the other hand, the trading volume is shrinking and turnover is decreasing. In other words, this situation only occurs when there are too few investors trading.
Last week, we expressed through a lot of data that the current driving force behind price increases is not a lot of purchasing power, but rather a large number of investors who do not want to sell, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand. However, the actual amount of funds and purchasing power have not increased significantly, which is the case for both spot and ETFs.
There is nothing to say about the support, as the price increase has made it more stable. More investors are concentrated between $104000 and $108500, and the market is still waiting for a direction to choose from. However, as long as there is no systemic risk, it should still be relatively stable.
Data address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing
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