Jason Choi
Jason Choi|May 12, 2025 05:46
“Fundamental” coins - crypto assets tied to applications (eg DeFi, DePin) - are in a similar limbo as the one I pointed out for ETH in ‘23 If institutional + retail investors wanted to bet on cash flows or secular growth, opportunities abound in equities. There’s no reason to meddle with the horrible liquidity in alts and wonky valuations for universally unproven value accrual models when you can buy a company with a 10Q. On the other hand, if remaining crypto natives want levered beta, they’d also just buy the most liquid names with uncapped upside (happen to be memes now) vs trying to make projections about mostly reflexive earnings. Personal view is as with most things in markets the pendulum will swing back but to things with non-reflexive cash flows (and non-cyclical, at least to crypto). Most of these are in DePin today. In a month or so ETH added 100B (while still down YTD mind you). An equivalent addition would 5x the entire DePin sector. TLDR I think people are too dismissive of the possibility of secular growth in crypto because they are looking in the wrong places, and they also underestimate the violence of re-rating when positioning goes from 0 to 1. One way to play this is spend years building a network, a brand, and maybe a fund and try to win venture allocations in DePin. Even then expect 99% failure rate and for the valuations to continually be bid up as long as VC funds remain overcapitalized. Other way is play liquid only, but timing, contrary to what many “zoom out” guys would say, is crucial unless your system allows for with a 90% drawdown.
Share To

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads