[Probability of the Federal Reserve Keeping Rates Unchanged in April Reaches 99.5%] On April 3, according to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. By June, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 7.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 91.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 0.5%.