Polymarket's probability of ceasefire between the US and Iran before May 15th drops to 37%

Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before May 15th" in Polymarket has dropped to 37%, a decrease of 45% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of the "When Will the US and Iran Cease Fire" contract has exceeded 107 million US dollars. US Vice President Vance reiterated the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday evening Eastern Time (UTC+8 Wednesday morning), and Trump set Tuesday evening Eastern Time as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise Iran's energy infrastructure may face the risk of a devastating blow.