Raoul Pal: Global liquidity growth may drive cryptocurrency market trend reversal

On March 8th, Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated that global liquidity is the main macro factor, with a correlation of approximately 90% with Bitcoin and 97% with the Nasdaq 100 index since 2012. Currently, global liquidity is growing at an annual rate of about 10% and shows no signs of slowing down. The GMI Financial Conditions Index has been leading global liquidity for about 6 months and is currently in a loose state. The United States may further cut interest rates in the future. The CLARITY Act may be passed, providing a regulatory framework for banks and asset management institutions. The issuance of stablecoins increased by 50% last year and is still accelerating. The cryptocurrency market is approaching historical oversold levels, and the weekly DeMark indicator is expected to form a bottom structure within two weeks, with the next two weeks being a key observation window. Maintaining high oil prices is currently the main risk factor.