Trump issues ultimatum to Iran, may affect oil prices and market volatility

Garrett Jin, the agent of the "1011 Insider Whale", posted on X platform that Trump has issued a 48 hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating the situation. He pointed out three impacts: the diplomatic buffer has been broken, and the low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan may come to an end; The escalation of conflict nature, if the attack expands to civilian infrastructure, will increase the probability of long-term war; The oil market volatility OVX rose to 93, far exceeding the stock market volatility index VIX of 24, indicating that the risk in the oil market is significantly higher than that in the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may rise, and the expected duration of the conflict is prolonged.