The market expects zero probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year

The Middle East conflict may push up inflation, and financial markets have abandoned their bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. According to data from the Zhishang Institute, the derivatives market believes that the probability of interest rate cuts this year is zero, while the probability on Thursday was 1.3%. The market expects a 54% chance of at least one interest rate hike. The impact of energy prices changes the outlook for global central banks, which are facing the dilemma of rising inflation and slowing growth. A month ago, investors were betting on two to three interest rate cuts this year, but at last week's Federal Reserve meeting, most officials expected only one 25 basis point rate cut this year.