Polymarket questioned due to Trump related predictions of a surge in trading volume

The encrypted prediction market platform Polymarket has been embroiled in insider trading controversy due to its prediction trading around US President Trump's policies and remarks. Data shows that from April 5th to 8th alone, there were approximately 413 million forecasts generated in the relevant markets surrounding the situation in Iran, involving funds exceeding 100 million US dollars. Issues such as whether Trump will take military action against Iran and whether he will push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets, with related trading volumes rapidly soaring after his social media comments. Donald Trump Jr. has been exposed to hold shares in Polymarket and serve as an advisor to prediction platform Kalshi, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data shows that political forecasting has become the second largest forecasting market category after sports. （Fortune）