Institutions predict that the non farm payroll data for January in the United States may be revised downwards by 911000 people

Institutional analysis indicates that the January non farm payroll report in the United States will be released on Wednesday and is expected to include annual employment data revisions. Preliminary estimates suggest that employment data as of March 2025 may be revised downwards by 911000 people. Scott Anderson, Chief US Economist for Capital Markets at Bank of Montreal in Canada, stated that this year's annual benchmark revision may have a greater impact as the US labor market is at a critical point between net job growth and job contraction. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revises non farm employment data annually in January based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers most job positions. AI interpretation: The significant correction in the upcoming non farm employment data indicates that the US labor market is facing an important turning point. The downward revision of employment numbers will directly affect the market's expectations for economic growth, especially in the current economic environment, and any adjustment of employment data will attract widespread attention. In addition, the impact of annual benchmark revisions is increasing, which may change investors' judgments on future economic trends, further affecting market sentiment and policy expectations.