After the release of US employment data, the probability of a March interest rate cut has risen to 16%

On February 6th, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 31st was 231000, higher than the expected 212000; ADP research shows that the private sector only added 22000 jobs in January, lower than market expectations, and the previous month's data was revised downwards. The relevant data has drawn market attention to the Federal Reserve's decision in March. Polymarket data shows that the probability of a rate cut in March has increased from 8% two days ago to 16%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has decreased from 91% to 82%. AI interpretation: The higher than expected number of initial jobless claims indicates increased pressure on the labor market, which may lead to the Federal Reserve being more cautious in future interest rate decisions. The weakness of ADP employment data further confirms the slowdown in economic growth, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen, reflecting investors' concerns about the economic outlook. Overall, these data will prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its monetary policy and may accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.