Review of the 15-day forecast from a few days ago: The direction was right, but the script was rewritten by Trump himself On November 6th, I posted a forecast for the "15-day stress test." Today is day 9, let's review. ✅ Correct: "The fuse is lit, BTC breaks below 75,500, the weekly 50-day moving average." — This came true. BTC is now around 62K, even worse than expected. "Liquidity drain, leveraged liquidations." — This came true. 330,000 people were liquidated, 90% of them long positions. ❌ Incorrect: "Oil prices break through $150." — This didn't happen. After losing the election, Trump immediately applied the brakes, saying on November 9th that the situation was "moving in a positive direction towards ending the conflict," and that restarting military action was "quite unlikely." Netanyahu urged him to attack every day, but he didn't respond. "The 15-day test at 67,700 is a golden buying opportunity." — BTC has already fallen to 62,000, lower than the scripted "ironclad bottom." The script underestimated the severity of the AI credit crisis. The real meat grinder in the financial markets won't be the Middle East conflict, but two things: First, the CPI has shattered the dream of interest rate cuts. October's core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, and Waller directly stated that "a 50 basis point rate hike should be considered in December." The probability of a December rate hike is 88.7%. Goldman Sachs has already pushed its forecast to another rate hike in March 2027. Second, without Jensen Huang, Nvidia's AI credit chain is cracking. Six consecutive weeks of decline, with a market capitalization loss of $1.84 trillion. Next week's earnings report will be chaired by an interim CEO; whether customer relations can be stabilized is unknown. I'm again projecting the next 15 days (November 15th - November 30th) for reference and entertainment purposes only: November 17th-19th (AI Pricing Week): Nvidia earnings report (Tuesday after market close) + Anthropic IPO (Thursday). Two pricing anchors for the AI narrative will be released in the same week. If Nvidia's earnings guidance falls short of expectations, or Anthropic's pricing is below the lower end of its range, the AI sector will experience a second round of valuation correction. BTC will likely follow suit, testing $58,500 (June low). November 20th-25th (Fed Digestion Period): A December rate hike is practically a certainty. If the October meeting minutes are hawkish, or retail sales data exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields will continue to rise, leaving no room for risk assets to breathe. US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin will all fall! November 26-30 (End-of-Month Liquidity): Tightening liquidity at the end of the month, coupled with uncertainty ahead of the December rate hike, may cause BTC to repeatedly test the bottom between 58,000 and 62,000. A break below 58,500 would break the upward trend since August and reverse it into a downward trend. If the AI subprime crisis bursts the AI bubble and triggers a US stock market crash and a global financial crisis, Bitcoin will also crash, falling to around 45,000 or even lower. US-Iran: A major conflict is unlikely, but minor skirmishes will continue. Tanker landmines, Houthi pipeline attacks, and the Iron Gate Task Force—these "limited violence" incidents will persist, but the geopolitical premium for oil prices has been suppressed by Trump's political stop-loss measures. Brent crude will fluctuate between 90 and 95. The geopolitical part of the scenario has deviated, but the liquidity crunch is even more severe. 62,000 isn't the bottom; 58,500 is the next challenge. ⏰️ Countdown begins, entering the second half.