Current Market Status (Mid-November 2026) and Historical Cycle Review Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, before falling to around $58,000–$60,000 in June 2026 (a maximum retracement of approximately 50–54%). This was one of the shallowest cyclical bear markets in history (previously, retracements of 70–85% were common). Currently, the price is fluctuating between $62,000 and $75,000, with a recent significant correction, but still well below the high, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.7 trillion. The four-year cycle roughly continues: a peak approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving (October 2025), followed by a correction. Institutionalization (spot ETFs) and a more mature market structure have reduced volatility, but have not completely disrupted the cyclical rhythm. On the macro front, inflationary pressures and expectations of Fed rate hikes are suppressing risk assets. Regulatoryly, the CLARITY Act is stalled in the Senate, and the outlook for Democrats is even more uncertain after the midterm elections, but stablecoin-related legislation (such as the GENIUS Act) has made progress. Key Drivers of Historical Bull-Bear Market Cycles Each bull-bear cycle in the cryptocurrency market is fundamentally driven by structural changes aimed at "expanding market access and attracting new funds/users": - 2017 Cycle: ICO boom + Ethereum smart contracts. This brought a large influx of new projects and retail investor funds. - 2020–2021 Cycle: DeFi Summer (AMM, lending, mining) + NFTs + pandemic-induced liquidity easing + early institutional entry. DeFi transformed "on-chain finance" into composable, real-world products, attracting significant capital. - 2024–2025 Cycle: Approval of Bitcoin:native / Ethereum:native ETFs + halving + deep institutional adoption. ETFs were a key catalyst, allowing traditional financial funds to easily enter the market and driving prices up significantly from low levels to over $120,000. Commonality: Innovation or product design allows more people/funds to participate and provides new use cases or revenue streams. The most likely catalyst for the latest round (expected 2027–2028, halving in 2028): Based on current data and market discussions, the area with the most potential to drive the next bull market is the combination of "RWA tokenization" and "AI Agents × Crypto," with RWA having a more structural and sustainable role in attracting funds. 1. RWA Tokenization (The most core infrastructure-level innovation): The current value of freely holdable RWA on-chain is approximately $3.5-4.6 billion (excluding stablecoins; slight differences may occur depending on the statistical method), a significant increase from two years ago, covering US Treasury bonds, private lending, yield strategies, stocks/ETFs, commodities, etc. Its significance is similar to ETFs or DeFi in their early days: massively transferring traditional financial assets onto the blockchain, transforming them into programmable, collateralizable, and composable assets. This directly attracts institutional funding, improves on-chain collateral quality and settlement efficiency, and significantly expands the total addressable market for crypto. Long-term forecasts generally point to hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. Compared to purely speculative narratives, RWA brings "real assets + real capital," making it more suitable for institutionalized markets. 2. AI Agents / Decentralized AI Economy AI agents autonomously conduct micropayments and transactions using stablecoins through protocols (such as x402), with hundreds of millions of transactions already recorded (although the total amount is still relatively small). Decentralized computing networks are also growing. This creates genuine on-chain economic demand: automated transactions between agents, payment APIs/data, asset management, etc., no longer relying solely on human speculation. The market capitalization of AI-related crypto tokens is currently around $2.5-2.7 billion, the narrative is still in its early stages but growth is significant. It's more like a "new application scenario" like DeFi in its early days, potentially leading to an explosion in trading volume and users later on. Supporting factors also include: stablecoins further solidifying their position as payment/settlement infrastructure (after regulatory clarification), the low cost and high efficiency brought by the maturity of L2 and modular blockchains, more ETFs and institutional products, and the continued allocation of Bitcoin as a macro hedging asset. Trend Judgment for This Bull Market - Current Stage: Late-stage adjustment/early-stage bottoming of the 2024–25 cycle. Drawdowns are relatively mild, institutional fund inflows and outflows have become normalized, and the violent surge driven purely by retail investor FOMO may weaken. - Next Round Characteristics: More likely to be driven by "practical value + institutional capital" rather than simple narrative hype. RWA will be responsible for continuously introducing traditional funds and expanding the market, while AI Agents will be responsible for creating real on-chain activity and demand. The combination of the two (AI agents trading, managing, and making payments in the tokenized asset market) may form the strongest synergy. - Time Window: The period around the halving (around April 2028) and the year before and after are typically key observation periods. Macro liquidity (interest rate cut cycle) and the speed of regulatory implementation will significantly affect the intensity. In summary, historically, DeFi has expanded the possibilities of on-chain finance, while ETFs have opened the door to traditional capital. The next wave is most likely to be driven by RWA tokenization (turning traditional assets into native on-chain assets), supplemented by AI Agents' autonomous economy driving real transaction demand. Both are progressing rapidly and are currently the most "structural" and "practical" directions. The market has gradually shifted from pure speculation to infrastructure and practical value, and the next bull market will likely take a more "mature" form.