BlackJack|Nov 15, 2026 10:13
This morning, seeing the extreme panic in 11+ and the RSI14 oversold (which only happens once a year on average per cycle), I started using leverage. It's been a long time since I've used leverage; the spot market has fallen so much more than expected, so I have to go back to my old ways.
In the short term, I'm looking at the 66-69 range, not expecting anything higher. If it's stopped down just above 66, there's a possibility of a slight new low next week (forming a bullish divergence?). If it rebounds to around 69, then this morning's 62 should be a significant bottom (similar to November 2019). Currently, the 4-hour moving averages are still in a collective bearish pattern. To truly feel reassured, we need a wide range of fluctuations to bring the 4-hour moving averages together (for example, a two-week period of consolidation between 61-70).
Last weekend it was around 75, and this week's drop to 62 is truly unexpected. All gaps have been broken. Meanwhile, US stocks were still in a strong rebound. This feeling is like the unique continuous selling pressure in the crypto market, such as the German government, the British government, and the Mt. Gox sell-offs I've experienced before. At that time, the price was in a continuous, slow decline until the sell-off ended and then rebounded. So far, no media outlets have reported any major institutions continuously selling off; it's just that the feeling is similar to what happened back then. Let's wait and see. For the near future, I'll only take profits of a few thousand dollars on contracts before exiting. Next week, we'll focus on Nvidia's earnings report and the interim CEO's speech. After all the promises and guarantees Huang made, are those hundreds of billions of dollars still valid? Secondly, we'll watch the performance of Alphabet's IPO. Its valuation has been pushed down to around 1.2-1.4 trillion; a low opening followed by a rise would be ideal. Hopefully, the turbulent November will end soon.
Many people have also asked me about the AI bubble bursting. I previously speculated it would burst next year, based on the expectation that pure large-scale model companies' earnings would fall short of expectations or that most of the cloud businesses of tech giants would underperform. So far, we haven't seen that, so I don't want to draw that conclusion at this time. However, technically, the Nasdaq's high in early October could easily become a six-month high. I'm not optimistic about a rebound to new highs early next year. As for what will happen in the 23rd quarter of next year, whether it will reach a new high before collapsing, there are no clues at the moment and it's impossible to guess. We need to review earnings reports, interest rates, and technical analysis every quarter to update our expectations.
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