陈桂林|11月 15, 2026 03:18
Every time I let my guard down and disregard discipline, the market drives me to the brink of madness.
This time, I think my only mistake was going all-in on ETHU at 2380 with my discretionary position, making it inflexible, and then getting carried away during the decline.
Fortunately, the stalemate has finally cleared up; there's a rebound, which means the market hasn't reached that extreme black swan event yet, and rationality still exists. As long as the market is rational, there's nothing to fear; there will be both rises and falls.
Let's review ETH: it first fell into the range from February to May, then rebounded to the upper edge of the range, failed to break out, and then plunged directly to the bottom of the range.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, plunged directly to the lower edge of the consolidation range from July to August this year. If we're talking about a shakeout, it's been thoroughly shaken out, and I've been thoroughly shaken out too.
Currently, at least we can see that the second leg of Bitcoin's decline from 81131 has a chance of ending, and the 0.5 retracement level is 71534.
Regardless of the previous rise or this fall, one observable phenomenon is that the 67,000-77,000 level is a vacuum zone; there is no support or resistance here. The market in the coming period will most likely be a volatile one, and we'll see if there is any exchange of shares within this range.
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