The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Nov 15, 2026 02:45
Businesses using AI are far more optimistic about their growth: Among US firms using AI, the share expecting revenue to increase over the next 12 months exceeds the share expecting a decrease by 48.2 percentage points, according to the Federal Reserve Banks' 2025 Small Business Credit Survey. By comparison, this gap is just 20.6 percentage points among firms not using AI, less than half the figure for AI adopters. At the same time, the share of AI-using firms expecting employment to increase exceeds the share expecting a decrease by 32.7 percentage points, compared to just 15.2 percentage points among non-adopters. These differences persist even after accounting for firm characteristics, business-owner demographics, and changes in revenue and employment over the previous 12 months. After adjusting for these factors, the gap between firms expecting revenue growth and those expecting a decline remains 14 percentage points wider among AI adopters than non-adopters. For employment expectations, the corresponding gap remains 10 percentage points wider among AI adopters. Businesses using AI are significantly more optimistic about their future expansion.
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