⚡️BTC is fluctuating and falling, but altcoins aren't following suit!❗️❗️ Many people are taking this anomaly as a bottoming signal for BTC, but I advise you not to rush in. Why is there this discrepancy? Three reasons: First, it's not that altcoins are strong, it's that they fell earlier. Many altcoins had already fallen significantly before BTC broke down, and are now just taking a breather at lower levels. This means they temporarily lack the strength to fall further, not that they're about to rise. Second, existing funds are looking for an outlet. There's no new money in the market, but there are always people willing to gamble. BTC is being suppressed by ETFs and institutions, so funds are flowing into smaller, established altcoins with a narrative. They might be bullish today, but they'll likely face the same fate tomorrow after interest rate hikes. Third, the data is interesting, but don't take it too seriously. The altcoin index rebounded from 31.8 to 43.2, with 19 out of 44 altcoins outperforming BTC. The official threshold is 75, but the current level is 43, less than half that. Funds aren't actually flowing into the altcoin market. Why can't this be considered a "bottoming signal" for Bitcoin and altcoins? Because a crucial condition is missing between "not following the decline" and "bottoming out": capital. For altcoins to truly experience a rally, new money from outside the market needs to enter, or at least ETFs need to stem the bleeding. But the current reality is: ETFs have seen outflows for nine consecutive days, totaling over 2 billion, with BlackRock accounting for 90% of that. Stablecoins are shrinking. The altcoin quarterly index is only 39, far below the official threshold of 75, indicating a lack of actual capital inflow into the altcoin market. Even more disheartening is that historically, after altcoins "don't follow the decline," there has often been a major downward wave. This situation occurred in July-August 2022, when the altcoin index surged to 97.6, but BTC's 60-day return was still -25%. Altcoins were simply "falling more slowly," not "stopping falling." After the altcoin's 1-, 2-, and 3-day moving average rebound ends, it will enter a bottoming phase on the weekly MACD in sync with BTC. There will be several major downward waves, with each new low followed by a rebound, a period of consolidation, and then continued decline. So how should this signal be used? We treat it as an "observation signal," not a "buy signal." If BTC truly stabilizes around 63K, the altcoin's "not following the decline" could indeed evolve into a rebound. Historically, 95% of altcoins that broke below the 200-day moving average did indeed experience a temporary bottom. However, this is contingent on BTC stabilizing first and ETFs stopping their bleeding. If BTC continues to fall below 60K, the altcoin's "resistance" will instantly turn into "catch-up decline," because existing funds cannot support both sides. The fact that altcoins aren't following the downward trend indicates that selling pressure is locally waning, and someone is testing the waters at lower levels. However, this isn't proof that Bitcoin and altcoins have bottomed out; it's a sign that "someone is betting on the bottom." If the bet is right, it's a rebound. If the bet is wrong, it's just a breather before the next major downward wave.