Bitcoin likely no longer has a four-year cycle: To answer this question, we need to look at why there was a four-year cycle in the past. Previously, due to the halving of mining, a large amount of Bitcoin was not released into circulation. Therefore, there was a halving cycle, i.e., a four-year cycle. At that time, the amount of Bitcoin purchased by the market did not increase after the four-year halving. Supply decreased, and buying increased slowly. Assuming that before the halving, buyers and sellers were balanced, and the price was stable and reasonable, then after the halving, buyers would exceed sellers, and the price would begin to strengthen until a new equilibrium was reached. Now, most of Bitcoin has been circulated. Less than 5% of Bitcoin remains unmined. The market price is determined by the circulating Bitcoin, and the halving has little impact on market supply. Therefore, Bitcoin should no longer have a halving cycle. However, Bitcoin still has a cycle. This cycle is the US dollar cycle, the cycle of US dollar interest rate adjustments. Bitcoin's price fluctuations are more like those of US dollar-denominated tech stocks. Understanding it as a fintech stock makes the current rise and fall easier to understand. (Reference: https://web.timestore.vip/ /time/pages/timeDetail/index?timeid=182988)