The Fed's liquidity is improving, yet BTC has fallen below the $70,000 mark. When will the money return? The recent market is a bit alarming, with gold, silver, Bitcoin, and tech stocks all falling. Even safe-haven assets are faltering, indicating the market is prioritizing the acquisition of US dollar cash. US Treasury yields remain high, with funds preferring to hold dollars for interest rather than take on risk. The latest Fed data shows that US bank reserves increased by approximately $30.5 billion in a week, while the Treasury's TGA account balance decreased by approximately $42.8 billion. In other words, the dollar's basic liquidity has shown marginal improvement, yet BTC continues to fall to around $68,000. The crypto market itself is bleeding. Stablecoin supply has shrunk by approximately $14.2 billion in 30 days, and BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows of approximately $1.292 billion in the last five full trading days. With external funds unwilling to enter and internal funds continuing to withdraw, coupled with leveraged liquidations, the market naturally lacks sustained buying power. Signals of Liquidity Return: 1. Macroeconomic Easing: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has continued to fall to around 102, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen below 5%, and real interest rates have declined accordingly, indicating a renewed willingness among investors to take risks. 2. Capital Inflow: BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive trading days, accumulating over $300 million; stablecoin supply has ended its contraction and continues to grow. This is the true signal of incremental funds entering the crypto market. 3. Price Confirmation: BTC has climbed back above the 200-day moving average around $73,100, with spot buying increasing simultaneously. Otherwise, even a violent rebound might just be short covering. BTC may experience an oversold rebound in the coming days, but a sustained reversal still requires capital confirmation. The key focus for the next 2-6 weeks will be observing the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows. As for a new bull market, it's too early to draw conclusions. The return of liquidity has three stages: the US dollar eases first, risk appetite recovers, and finally, funds truly flow into BTC. The first step is showing some signs now, but the other two steps haven't caught up yet.